Dogecoin's 2020 Accumulation Cycle: A Possible Repeat?

Crypto analyst Cryptollica suggests that Dogecoin (DOGE) is potentially entering a similar accumulation phase as it did in 2020. By analyzing DOGE's weekly chart, they argue that the cryptocurrency is forming a base and resetting momentum, setting the stage for a potential price surge. While the fractal pattern observed in DOGE's past may indicate bullish behavior, some analysts caution that market conditions have evolved, and previous patterns may not guarantee future outcomes.

Key Takeaways

Analyst Cryptollica highlights a "rounded base" forming in DOGE’s weekly chart, similar to past accumulation phases.
The current price action is deemed to be "the calm before the storm," suggesting a potential price increase.
Historical RSI levels show that DOGE has frequently rebounded from similar support levels in the past.
Caution is advised as market conditions have changed since 2020, and outcome predictions based on fractals are not deterministic.

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Analyzing Dogecoin's Potential Rebound

Crypto analyst Cryptollica (@Cryptollica on X) believes that Dogecoin is following a familiar pattern observed in its weekly chart: creating a rounded base, reducing volatility, resetting momentum, and preparing for what they see as “the calm before the storm.” In a TradingView analysis published on December 23, titled “DOGE: The Cycle Repeats (1W Timeframe),” Cryptollica describes the current market conditions as a “textbook fractal setup.” They reference four previous structural points in DOGE’s long-term history, stating that we are currently at “Point 4.” The focus here is on recognizing patterns rather than relying on a single indicator; the analyst notes that the present structure resembles the pre-bull run accumulation phases seen in the past.

Historical Phases and Current Conditions

Cryptollica characterizes Zones 1 and 2 as earlier "boredom phases," which were marked by long periods of stagnation that, in hindsight, appear to be accumulation phases. According to the analysis, “Zones 1 & 2: These were the ‘boredom phases’ where volatility died, and smart money accumulated.” Zone 2 is particularly noted as the point where the 2021 price surge began. The current period, identified as Zone 4, mirrors this earlier phase. “We are seeing the exact same rounding bottom formation. The price is stabilizing, forming a heavy base just like it did before the previous explosions,” they state.

Momentum Analysis via RSI

The discussion about DOGE’s potential also encompasses the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Cryptollica emphasizes the significance of the RSI indicator, noting, “Look at the RSI indicator at the bottom. The red line (~32 level) acts as a historical floor.” They assert that whenever the weekly RSI approached this baseline, it marked a macro bottom. As per their assessment, the RSI has recently returned to this crucial support level, which they interpret as a sign of seller fatigue: “It indicates that the sellers are exhausted and the momentum is primed to flip.”

For those experienced in crypto trading, this analysis can seem familiar: historical patterns are used as templates to predict future movements. Cryptollica argues that this isn’t mere chance but a “cyclical reset,” stating that DOGE is currently in a favorable accumulation zone. They suggest that if the current price action resembles that of 2020, it is simply a quiet waiting period before the next big move.

Market Reactions and Cautionary Insights

The editorial team at TradingView has noted this analysis, featuring it as an “Editor’s Pick” on their homepage. They advise that good trading strategies are valuable, regardless of the outcomes, and particularly satisfying when successful. Cryptollica expressed gratitude for the recognition in the TradingView community.

However, caution is advised. Another user, ZarinSyed, commented on the analysis, acknowledging that while the fractal analysis is intriguing, it does not guarantee a specific outcome. “The fractal analysis is compelling,” they remarked, “however, while the setup does resemble prior accumulation phases, it’s important to note that fractals are not deterministic — macro conditions and liquidity flows can alter outcomes.” They also suggested that a positive confirmation would involve watching DOGE’s closing price rise above the $0.15–$0.17 range to validate a bullish outlook.

ZarinSyed further mentioned that while the current support level at ~32 signals possible exhaustion among sellers, “momentum confirmation often requires a sustained move above the midline (50). Until then, the risk of prolonged sideways action remains.” This perspective highlights an essential market nuance: unlike 2020, DOGE now operates within a more mature marketplace influenced by institutional flows driven by ETFs, indicating that retail-driven patterns may differ this time around.

Conclusion

In straightforward trading terms, Cryptollica presents a strong argument that DOGE may have entered a buying zone, with the RSI nearing a historical low and creating a rounded base that aligns with previous cycles. Meanwhile, ZarinSyed emphasizes the need for concrete evidence of this pattern’s potential to manifest, suggesting traders keep an eye on relative metrics like DOGE/BTC dominance to determine if this is merely a DOGE-specific movement or a broader market fluctuation.

At the time of publication, DOGE is trading at $

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DOGE needs to overcome the red zone, 1-week chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on TradingView.com