Economic Data Influencing Bitcoin Sentiment This Week

Between December 15 and 19, 2025, several significant US economic data releases are poised to impact Bitcoin's market sentiment. Analysts are split between concerns of a major price correction and optimism that the Federal Reserve's policies may cushion any potential fallout.

Key Takeaways

Major US economic data to be released from December 15-19 could significantly influence Bitcoin's price.
The Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, affecting market sentiment.
Initial Jobless Claims are anticipated to decrease, adding to dovish sentiment for Bitcoin.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is crucial, with expectations of slight inflation increases impacting Federal Reserve policy outlook.
Traders are advised to be cautious of potential volatility in Bitcoin's price amid these economic updates.

In addition, data from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to create further volatility, as markets currently anticipate a 98% likelihood that the BOJ will hike rates by 75 basis points on December 19. Traditionally, such an action has led to price declines of 20-30% for Bitcoin.

Essential US Economic Indicators for Crypto Traders This Week

With Bitcoin hovering around the $90,000 mark, macroeconomic indicators are likely to significantly influence both the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and Bitcoin's short-term price movements this week.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

The following key US economic indicators are worth monitoring this week:

November Nonfarm Payrolls Report: This report provides a vital overview of the US labor market, marking the first comprehensive look since September. It is crucial for guiding market views on the Fed's policy trajectory into 2026. Analysts forecast a substantial decrease in job creation, projecting only 50,000 new jobs, a significant drop from October's 119,000. The unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly from 4.4% to 4.5%.

Recent private payroll data has contributed to a pessimistic outlook, with ADP reporting an unexpected loss of 32,000 jobs. This underlines the notion that the labor market is cooling faster than anticipated.

Market analysts are keenly eyeing the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement as a pivotal moment, especially with Bitcoin constrained around the $90,000 level.

Goldman Sachs Analysis: For October, we estimate nonfarm payrolls increased by +10,000 and by +55,000 in November, slightly above the consensus expectation of +50,000 for November, yet below the three-month average of +62,000.

A robust report could revive expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward the $85,000 support zone. In contrast, a weak report, especially one under the 40,000 to 50,000 range, could bolster dovish sentiments, paving the way for a rebound toward $95,000 or higher as liquidity hopes return.

Overall, market sentiment remains cautious, with many traders noting the increased risk of sharp price shifts amid lower liquidity conditions.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: This statistic provides a more immediate indication of labor market distress. It records the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week.

Claims for the week ending December 13 are projected to decline to 223,000 from the previous count of 236,000, which had already seen a significant rise from 192,000.

Recent data suggests more Americans are seeking unemployment benefits, indicating potential weaknesses in the labor market, which in turn has raised expectations for rate cuts and has been supportive for Bitcoin, even as it briefly dipped below $90,000 before recovering.

Many traders view the surge in jobless claims as beneficial for cryptocurrency, linking worsened labor conditions to a higher likelihood of Federal Reserve easing policies.

If Thursday's report exceeds 230,000 claims, it would likely reinforce the dovish outlook and support a positive shift for Bitcoin. Conversely, a stronger figure under 220,000 could dampen rate-cut predictions, leading to a pullback toward the $88,000 level.

Despite many traders holding a neutral to bullish perspective on current macroeconomic conditions, there are concerns about volatile price action if market participants revert to "sell-the-news" strategies.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Undoubtedly the most critical economic data point this week, the delayed CPI report for November—held back due to a US government shutdown—is set to make waves.

Year-over-year inflation is anticipated to rise slightly to 3.1% from 3.0%, with core CPI likely remaining stable at 3.0%. Although inflation continues to sit significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, any signs of easing could bolster rate-cut expectations as soon as March.

Sentiment on social platforms is mixed but leans toward optimism: a CPI figure below 2.8% could trigger a risk-on rally, propelling Bitcoin towards $95,000. Conversely, a CPI reading above 3.2% could provoke a hawkish rerating, potentially pushing Bitcoin down to $85,000.

As the US inflation data coincides with developments from other global central banks, including a potential rate increase from the Bank of Japan, traders generally see CPI as a critical benchmark for liquidity.

US Economic Data This Week. Source: Market Watch

In conjunction with the labor-related data, the outcome may dictate whether Bitcoin can break out of its current consolidation around $90,000 or face further declines.