Ethereum Enters Rare MVRV Zone Associated with Past Rallies Over 130%

Ethereum has recently dropped into a valuation range that many analysts in the crypto space connect to significant long-term bottoms. This shift occurred after ETH fell below its realized price for the first time in two years. On the platform X, noted crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that the current circumstances closely resemble previous cycle lows.

Key Takeaways

Ethereum has fallen below its realized price for the first time in two years.
The MVRV ratio has entered the 0.8 – 1.0 range, historically linked to significant market bottoms.
Previous rebounds from this range have seen gains between 130% and over 5,000%.
Analysts suggest that the current market conditions present an accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.
As of now, ETH is trading above its realized price at $2,139.

Ethereum Hits Rare MVRV Zone Linked To Past 130%+ Rallies

Ethereum Enters the MVRV Buy Zone

In an update on X, Martinez stated, “Ethereum has entered a generational ‘Buy Zone.’ The MVRV Ratio, which assesses the difference between the market price and the average cost basis for investors, has now dipped into the 0.8 – 1.0 range. Historically, this reset to ‘fair value’ signifies the onset of substantial structural bull rallies.”

Ethereum MVRV

This observation is grounded in established on-chain analysis. When the MVRV ratio decreases to around or below 1.0, the spot price of Ethereum aligns with or falls below the collective on-chain acquisition cost for holders. Practically speaking, this means the market is no longer valuing Ethereum at the high premiums seen during bullish periods. Instead, it is exploring a zone where previous market cycles have depleted sellers and attracted long-term investors.

Related Reading: Ethereum Holds Above $2,300 As Open Interest Expansion Reinforces Uptrend Stability

Martinez shared a chart to illustrate his argument, showing historical rebounds from this zone. The previous rallies from the “Buy Zone” were impressive, witnessing rises of approximately 150%, 5,390%, 130%, 280%, and 250%. He suggested, “On-chain data indicates that Ethereum is nearing a long-term bottom. For those with a 12-24 month investment outlook, the window for accumulation is officially open!”

In a similar vein, the analytics firm Glassnode noted last week that, “ETH has dropped below its realized price for the first time in two years – indicating that the average investor is currently holding an unrealized loss.” Their report included two important metrics: a Realized Price of $2,058.04 and an MVRV ratio of 0.93 (indicating a 7% unrealized loss).

Ethereum Realized Price and MVRV

These figures bolster the overall argument. With a realized price of $2,058.04 compared to a market price of $1,917.86, it shows that Ethereum is trading below the average acquisition cost tracked by Glassnode's model. An MVRV of 0.93 implies that, on average, holders are losing about 7% on paper. Although this doesn’t confirm a bottom, it does suggest a phase where significant speculative excess has largely been removed.

In markets that are overheating, the MVRV ratio tends to rise as prices exceed the network's realized cost basis, reflecting crowded profits and increased distribution risk. Conversely, readings below 1.0 typically emerge when investor confidence is weak, sentiment is low, and most sellers have already absorbed a significant portion of the price drop. For these reasons, analysts often view this zone as strategically critical, even if price movements remain volatile in the short term.

As of the latest updates, ETH has rebounded above its realized price, trading at $2,139.

Ethereum price chart