Ethereum Price Update: Analyst Predicts Potential Drop to $600

Ethereum is trading above $2,100 as we begin a new month; however, an analyst forecasts that the next significant price movement hinges on a crucial price level. If this level is breached, it could invalidate years of analysis and lead to a price drop to as low as $900.

Key Takeaways

Ethereum’s current trading price stands above $2,100.
The analysis by The Penguin identifies an Elliott Wave structure that is crucial for understanding Ethereum's price movements.
A key support level is identified at $1,382; staying above this level allows for potential upward movement, while falling below it indicates a significant bearish trend.
A breach of the $1,382 level could result in Ethereum dropping to between $800 and $500.

Ethereum

An analyst, known as The Penguin, suggests that Ethereum's recent price activity reflects a larger pattern defined by the Elliott Wave structure. Since its peak in 2021, Ethereum has oscillated between sideways movement and downward trends, repeatedly teasing potential recoveries that ultimately faded. A specific price level, identified at $1,382, is critical for determining Ethereum's future trajectory. If this level is crossed, Ethereum may face a substantial drop to below $900.

The Price Structure Over the Years

According to The Penguin, Ethereum's pricing behavior is part of a larger Elliott Wave pattern that has developed over several years. This framework categorizes Ethereum's price history since 2016 into a macro sequence, with a completed Cycle Wave 1 followed by an extended Wave 2 correction depicted as a flat. This structure is characterized by its lengthy, choppy nature often designed to confuse traders.

Since reaching its peak in 2021, Ethereum has primarily moved sideways and downwards, with periodic attempts to recover that have ultimately failed. For instance, a notable recovery occurred in August 2025 when Ethereum achieved new all-time highs before falling back below the $2,000 mark.

Ethereum Chart
Source: Chart from The Penguin on X

The detailed chart illustrates the flat trading sequence, outlining the W, X, A, and B legs forming the broader Wave 2 structure. Presently, the price action appears to be within the final leg of the B structure, with expectations leaning towards an upward movement to C.

The Critical $1,382 Price Point

As illustrated in the chart above, Ethereum has been trading under a clearly defined resistance zone of approximately $4,500 to $4,900 since its 2021 peak. Multiple attempts to break above this level have proven unsuccessful. In contrast, the lows have formed in a less distinct pattern.

A notable level within this framework is the $1,382 low recorded in April 2025. This price is marked as Wave X and is designated as a critical point where the trend may invalidate. Should Ethereum maintain its value above this threshold, the Wave 2 scenario remains intact, allowing for the possibility of a new upward cycle with a target price of $8,400.

However, if Ethereum drops below $1,382, it would invalidate the entire Elliott Wave structure. Achieving this drop would require Ethereum to lose about a third of its current value. Considering Q1 2026's decline of 29% and a low of $1,743 on February 6, a drop to this level is feasible under sustained selling pressure.

If the invalidation level fails, the analyst anticipates a potential drop below $900, with Fibonacci extensions suggesting lows between $800 and $500.

Ethereum Trading Chart
ETH trading at $2,130 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com