Ethereum's Long-Term Cost Basis Remains Strong: Support Forms Near $2.8K

Summary:
Ethereum continues to experience difficulty in retaking the $3,100 mark, with market dynamics creating uncertainty. A new report from CryptoQuant sheds light on the long-term cost basis for Ethereum, suggesting that despite recent volatility, a solid foundation remains in place around the $2,700–$2,800 range.

Key Takeaways

Ethereum's price struggles with resistance around $3,100 and shows signs of indecision.
A report from CryptoQuant highlights a stable long-term accumulation cost for ETH amidst market fluctuations.
The current support level around $2,700–$2,800 is crucial for Ethereum's future price action.
While short-term price movements attract attention, long-term buying behavior indicates resilience among holders.

Ethereum Long-Term Cost Basis Remains Strong: Support Forms Near $2.8K

Ethereum's Long-Term Accumulation Strategy Faces a Turning Point

Ethereum is in a tight spot, unable to regain the $3,100 level as trading patterns tighten. After several weeks of mixed trading results, ETH finds itself caught between waning bullish efforts and persistent resistance. Analysts are split on Ethereum’s next move; while a minority believes it will regain its strength and challenge previous highs, most foresee a bearish outlook for 2026, characterized by diminished demand and tighter liquidity.

In this climate of uncertainty, a report from CryptoQuant provides a longer-term viewpoint that cuts through the short-term noise. The focus is on the Accumulating Addresses Realized Price—this metric calculates the average cost basis of addresses that consistently buy ETH rather than actively trading. Unlike fleeting momentum indicators, this measure demonstrates where long-term investors are committed over time.

Since 2020, this accumulation cost has consistently increased. Even throughout the severe market drop from 2022 to 2023, when ETH prices fell significantly, long-term holders largely remained steadfast instead of selling their assets. This commitment has created a robust support structure beneath the market.

Currently, this realized price has settled in the $2,700–$2,800 range, forming a solid cost zone for Ethereum. As ETH hovers above this level, a critical question arises: Will this long-term support continue to sustain prices, or will changing macroeconomic conditions disrupt a regime that has lasted for years?

Ethereum's Accumulation Phase Faces Key Challenges

The discussion surrounding Ethereum is evolving. The primary concern is no longer whether the $2,700–$2,800 accumulation zone will hold in the short term; it's whether this long-standing accumulation phase can continue indefinitely. Data from CryptoQuant highlights how Ethereum distinctly differs from the wider altcoin market.

Ethereum Realized Price by Accumulating Addresses | Source: CryptoQuant

Since 2022, most altcoins have undergone severe declines without establishing a lasting accumulation cost base. This lack of consistent long-term buying explains the weaker and more fragile recoveries seen in the altcoin sector. In contrast, Ethereum has demonstrated an ability to maintain the confidence of long-term holders through several market stress points, including those in 2018, 2020, 2022, and even the market volatility of 2025.

However, markets change, and structural conditions may not endure indefinitely. Times of apparent stability are often when underlying assumptions are most susceptible to shifts. Looking ahead, two scenarios emerge.

As long as ETH’s price trades at or above its accumulation cost, it indicates that long-term buyers remain active, bolstering Ethereum’s resilience compared to other altcoins. Conversely, a prolonged move below this cost zone could signal a significant behavioral change among long-term holders, challenging the notion that Ethereum has permanently moved beyond its pre-2020 valuations.

While short-term price movements often grab headlines, it’s this structural struggle beneath the surface that may ultimately shape Ethereum’s next major market cycle.

Price Consolidation as Buyers Protect the $3,000 Threshold

Ethereum is currently stabilizing around the $3,100 level after unsuccessful attempts to break through higher resistance zones, reflecting a market caught between the risk of stabilization and continuation. The charts show ETH trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages, with the 50-day and 100-day averages now acting as resistance rather than support. This transition confirms that the overall market structure remains corrective after being rejected from the $4,000–$4,200 range earlier this cycle.

ETH consolidates below key resistance | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView

The $3,000–$3,100 area has emerged as a pivotal point. Price has consistently defended this zone, indicating demand and short-term accumulation. However, upward momentum is stifled, as each price bounce encounters selling pressure near declining moving averages. This pattern is common for markets attempting to establish a base after a prolonged downtrend rather than signaling a clean trend reversal.

From a structural standpoint, ETH remains above the long-term moving average, which is still on an upward slope. This suggests that the broader macro trend has not entirely shifted, despite weak short-term momentum. Additionally, recent rebounds have seen declining trading volumes, reinforcing the notion that buyers are lacking in conviction.

For bullish trends to take hold, reclaiming the $3,300 level will be necessary to shift momentum and challenge the current bearish structure. Until that time, Ethereum appears to be in a phase of consolidation, with risks of downward movement persisting if the $3,000 support fails to hold.