Expert Trader Who Correctly Predicted Bitcoin's Peak Suggests Possible Drop Below $4,000

Expert trader Tony Severino, known for accurately predicting Bitcoin's peak, has warned of a potential crash that could bring Bitcoin's price down to $4,000. His insights come as Bitcoin struggles to surpass critical resistance levels, raising concerns about a deeper decline in its value.

Key Takeaways

Tony Severino suggests Bitcoin may drop to $4,000, indicating potential bearish trends.
A possible Head-and-Shoulder pattern could trigger this decrease in value.
Market participants should focus on price ranges and cycles to navigate the current market.
On-chain analytics indicate profit-taking is prevalent around the $70,000 mark.
Analysts like Willy Woo highlight critical support levels at $30,000 and predict significant bearish trends.

Bitcoin

Expert Trader Sounds Alarm on Bitcoin's Potential Drop

In a recent post on X, expert trader Tony Severino raised concerns about Bitcoin's future potential, questioning whether the next bull market for Bitcoin will be characterized by lower highs followed by lower lows. His accompanying chart suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may be forming a Head-and-Shoulder pattern, a technical signal that could lead to a drop in price to around $4,000. Severino advised market participants to consider playing within ranges and market cycles to best navigate the current environment.

When asked about the possibility of identifying a bottom price for Bitcoin in this bear market, Severino noted that it is speculative and can change over time. However, he mentioned that Bitcoin appears to be bottoming on shorter timeframes, even as it may take longer for a definitive bottom to be established on longer timeframes.

Bitcoin Chart
Source: Chart from Tony Severino on X

Recently, Severino predicted that Bitcoin might experience a maximum drawdown of approximately 72%, which would place the bottom around $34,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Bitcoin could fall to as low as $40,000 before finding its bottom. Despite a recent relief rally that saw prices rise to $70,000, Bitcoin's ongoing struggles indicate a risk of a more profound decline.

The on-chain analytics platform Glassnode remarked in a recent post on X that profit-taking at the $70,000 level continues to diminish momentum, aligning with a thin-liquidity environment that can hinder recovery attempts.

Potential Scenarios for Bitcoin's Price Decline

Crypto analyst Willy Woo pointed out that Bitcoin has only thrived in a global macro bull market from 2009 to 2026. He warned that should the global macroeconomic environment deteriorate, Bitcoin's price could find support around the $30,000 mark. Woo also identified $16,000 as a significant level that Bitcoin must hold to maintain its bull trend.

Despite these warning signs, Woo believes that a typical bear market bottom for Bitcoin would be around $45,000. He observed that the recent sell-off by investors appears to be tapering, suggesting that Bitcoin may consolidate sideways for about a month before potentially rallying back to the mid-$70,000 range, although a rejection at that level is likely.

He explained that this potential rejection stems from a broadly bearish market, where both spot and futures liquidity are declining. Woo anticipates that the final quarter (Q4) of this year could mark the end of the current bearish trend, with bullish momentum possibly returning by Q1 or Q2 of 2027.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $67,800, reflecting a decline over the last 24 hours, based on data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin Trading
BTC trading at $67,918 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com