Fidelity Macro Lead Predicts $65K Bitcoin Bottom in 2026, Signaling End of Bull Cycle

Recent analysis by Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity suggests that Bitcoin might have reached the peak of its current four-year halving cycle. He predicts a potential downside in 2026 with a support level between $65,000 and $75,000. Meanwhile, other analysts believe that regulatory advancements may lead to a bullish turn in the same year.

Key Takeaways

Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity indicates that Bitcoin may have concluded its four-year cycle, anticipating a downturn in 2026.
He suggests a support zone for Bitcoin between $65,000 and $75,000.
Contrasting views exist in the market, with some analysts expecting Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs due to regulatory developments.
Social sentiment among investors has declined recently, especially after Bitcoin dipped below $85,000.

Fidelity macro lead calls $65K Bitcoin bottom in 2026, end of bull cycle

Bitcoin's Predicted Downturn in 2026

Bitcoin appears to have wrapped up its historic four-year cycle, indicating potential challenges ahead, even as various analysts foresee a prolonged bullish phase benefiting from regulatory support. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macroeconomic research, interprets Bitcoin’s peak at $125,000 on October 6 as a possibly pivotal point in the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, characterized by both price and timing.

“While I remain positively bullish on Bitcoin over the long term, my concern is that we may have concluded another four-year cycle halving phase,” Timmer expressed in a Thursday post on X. He commented that the “Bitcoin winters” typically last around a year, suggesting that 2026 might be an “off year” for Bitcoin, with critical support seen between $65,000 and $75,000.

Source: Jurrien Timmer

Potential Upside Amidst Regulatory Improvements

Timmer’s perspective diverges from that of other crypto analysts, who are optimistic that the increasing range of regulated crypto investment options might fuel an extended bullish market cycle in 2026. Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of Delphi Digital, holds a contrasting view, foreseeing new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026 as investor confidence recovers from a significant $19 billion crypto market crash earlier this month.

Shaughnessy commented, “We are navigating through a one-time disastrous 10/10 liquidation event that negatively impacted the market.” He also emphasized that the market's future valuations would be influenced heavily by the sector's fundamental developments, including enhanced Wall Street engagement and supportive regulatory changes.

Source: Santiment

Outlook on U.S. Cryptocurrency Legislation

Policy experts predict that 2026 will be a noteworthy year for cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S., which could attract more institutional attention to the crypto landscape. Cathy Yoon, general counsel at the crypto research firm Temporal, noted, “I anticipate that 2026 will bring significant advancements in cryptocurrency regulation, though it will differ from the previous year.”

Yoon elaborated that following the passage of stablecoin legislation, the real change would stem from actual implementation, including audits, disclosures, and the integration of these assets into traditional payment and financial systems.

Source: Nansen

Despite these optimistic forecasts, investor sentiment has noticeably waned recently, particularly after Bitcoin fell below $85,000. Analysis of social media conversations on platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram shows a rise in bearish sentiment, as reported by the market intelligence firm Santiment.

Simultaneously, data from the blockchain intelligence platform Nansen indicates that top performing traders, referred to as “smart money,” are currently betting on a short-term decline for many leading cryptocurrencies. While these traders are currently net short on Bitcoin with positions totaling $123 million, they appear to favor Ether, with accumulated net long positions worth $475 million.

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