Final Countdown: Analyst Predicts XRP RSI Breakout Could Lead to $10

XRP is currently at a critical junction on its weekly chart as it enters a defined post-breakout range. Analyst Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) believes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) will provide essential direction, predicting a breakout in the first quarter of the year that he anticipates will align with rising prices towards the $10 mark.

Key Takeaways

XRP is nearing a potential breakout on its weekly chart, with current price levels at $2.37.
Analyst Maelius expects an RSI breakout "sometime in Q1" that may lead XRP to reach $10.
The weekly chart displays a consolidation phase with defined boundaries at approximately $3.33 and $1.60.
Comparisons to XRP’s price movements in 2017 indicate a possible similar upward trajectory.
A successful recovery above the 50-week EMA is crucial for confirming a bullish trend.

XRP price news

Is XRP on the Verge of an Explosion?

The weekly chart for XRP illustrates a defined range following a breakout, highlighted by analyst Maelius’ observations. The upper boundary of this range aligns with a previous high near $3.33 (the peak in 2018), while the lower boundary is set just above $1.60. Currently, XRP sits at about $2.124 at the weekly close, just underneath the important 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a key pivot point in Maelius' analysis.

XRP price analysis | Source: X @MaeliusCrypto

The chart illustrates the current price movement as a corrective wave 4 following an impulsive advance. Maelius emphasizes that this scenario does not indicate a broken trend but rather a temporary pause in it. He suggests there is only one week left in this phase, indicating a condensed timeframe for the market to resolve this consolidation and shift into wave 5 if the momentum confirms.

The broader chart structure invites a comparison to XRP's performance in 2017; following its initial significant upward movement, it underwent a lengthy consolidation phase before another powerful surge. During early 2017, XRP experienced a whopping 7,400% increase over about three months, followed by an additional rise of roughly 1,500% after a prolonged consolidation.

Today's price action is following a somewhat similar pattern: a robust initial leg from late 2024 to early 2025 (approximately a +500% increase) and followed by a year-long consolidation extending until January 2026. If this pattern holds, another major upward movement could be on the horizon, albeit potentially less intense than the first leg.

The lower section of the chart features a weekly RSI, which shows a descending trendline that has capped recent peaks. This downward-sloping line serves as Maelius' marker for timing: “RSI breaks out sometime in Q1. Price goes higher.” Essentially, this means momentum must break its current compression phase before XRP can embark on the next expansion phase.

Importantly, the higher-degree labeling of the chart indicates that the current wave 4 is a part of a larger wave III, not a final wave. When asked if $10 might be a quarterly high, Maelius stated: “We should experience a breakout in Q1 but not necessarily hit a ceiling. The next wave should move toward $10.”

If this analysis holds true, XRP should aim to reclaim the 50-week EMA and reinforce its acceptance toward the range highs near $3.33. The break of the RSI trendline would serve as a vital confirmation event to watch. However, if XRP fails to reclaim the 50-week EMA and breaks below the lower boundary just above $1.60, this could prolong the current wave 4 corrective phase and hinder the anticipated wave 5 upward momentum.

As of now, XRP is trading at $2.37.

XRP price chart
XRP needs to reclaim the 0.382 Fib, 1-week chart | Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com