Five Bear Market Signals for Bitcoin This January

January has been a tumultuous month for Bitcoin (BTC), as the cryptocurrency navigates renewed challenges amid increasing geopolitical tensions between the US and the EU, particularly following recent tariff announcements from President Trump. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has declined nearly 2.5%, bringing its price down to $92,663. Analysts are identifying several key bear market signals that may suggest a downturn could be on the horizon.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently trading below its critical 365-day moving average, indicating further bearish conditions.
A bearish Kumo twist has appeared on Bitcoin's weekly chart, historically suggesting a shift to a bear market phase.
Historical patterns indicate Bitcoin's price may decline further, despite the current pullback being modest compared to past cycles.
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator suggests the market has entered bear territory but is not yet in an extreme phase.
Increased inflows to exchanges from larger Bitcoin holders indicate growing distribution, not accumulation.

1. Warning Signs on Bitcoin's Weekly Chart

Analyst Titan of Crypto recently highlighted a “Kumo twist” on Bitcoin’s weekly chart via X (formerly Twitter). This phenomenon occurs when the two leading spans of the Ichimoku Cloud—Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B—cross paths, flipping the future cloud's direction.

Such shifts can signal a change in market trends: from bullish to bearish or vice versa. In this instance, the current twist indicators suggest a bearish outlook for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Ichimoku Cloud bearish shift
Bitcoin's Weekly Ichimoku Cloud. Source: X/Titan of Crypto

Historically, Titan of Crypto notes that similar Kumo shifts have often preceded substantial corrections, with Bitcoin experiencing drawdowns of around 67% to 70% in past cycles. “A bearish weekly Kumo typically indicates that BTC is entering a bear market phase. This doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate decline but rather a shift in market dynamics. It's important context rather than a precise prediction based on the last three cycles,” the post stated.

2. Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance Levels

Bitcoin is also trading below its 365-day moving average, a key resistance level around $101,000 that played a significant role during the 2022 bear market, stalling recovery attempts.

Bitcoin 365-day moving average analysis
Bitcoin Price Rejection at 365-day MA. Source: X/Coin Bureau

According to Coin Bureau’s analysis, this position below the moving average indicates that the market remains in bearish territory. Further technical insights using the Gaussian Channel on a five-day chart reveal that Bitcoin has dipped below the channel's median level, fueling concerns.

An analyst pointed out that failing to retest this median level has frequently signified the start of more severe bear market phases. “I believe we’re definitely heading toward the $103k zone for a retest, or possibly slightly higher for a liquidity hunt. If we manage to maintain support above the median, I’ll keep you updated. Until then, any upward movement should be considered a mere 'dead cat bounce,’” the analyst commented.

Bitcoin Gaussian Channel analysis
Bitcoin’s Failed Retest of the Gaussian Channel Median. Source: X/Crypto Raven

3. Decline Patterns Suggest More Losses Ahead

Bitcoin’s price history illustrates a repeating pattern of sharp declines that typically follow cycle peaks. For instance, following its peak in 2013, Bitcoin experienced a notable drop of about 75.9%. This was succeeded by an 81.2% decrease after the 2017 high and a roughly 74% fall after the peak in 2021.

Currently, however, the downturn has been relatively mild, with losses around 30%—a lighter correction by historical comparison. This indicates that the current decline could be in its early stages, and further price drops may be forthcoming.

Bitcoin's Historical Price Drop Patterns
Bitcoin’s Historical Price Drop Patterns. Source: CryptoQuant

4. Market Indicators Show Bear Phase Ongoing

Beyond price movements, various market cycle indicators analyze current conditions. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator suggests bearish sentiment began in October 2025, though it has not yet entered an extreme bear phase.

“Based on this indicator, BTC is within bear market territory, and in all previous cycles, we've seen further declines once we hit the darkest blue zone, indicating lower levels ahead. But feel free to forecast a bullish trend; someone will end up being exit liquidity,” one analyst remarked.

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant

5. Exchange Inflows Point to Distribution Trends

Finally, on-chain data reveals an increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, primarily driven by mid- to large-sized holders. Specifically, those holding between 10 to 100 BTC and 100 to 1,000 BTC are showing increased transfer activity.

Such inflows often suggest that holders are distributing their assets rather than accumulating for the long term, indicative of potential selling pressure. As noted by an analyst, “Activity from larger holders tends to be more meaningful than fragmented retail transactions, reflecting strategic decisions amid current market conditions. The combination of rising exchange inflows from larger cohorts indicates the market may be entering a more delicate phase.”

In summary, Bitcoin is presenting several signals that hint at a possible bear market, as reflected in technical, historical, and on-chain indicators. However, whether these patterns will lead to further declines or whether Bitcoin will strengthen unexpectedly remains to be seen.