From Panic to Positioning: How Bitcoin Whales Are Preparing for December

In theory, digital assets are the pinnacle of “decentralization.” But do they truly function that way in the real world? The recent crash in October served as a wake-up call for cryptocurrency investors, wiping out billions and leaving many HODLers in a challenging position. This downturn was triggered by a “coordinated” exit by large holders, commonly known as whales.

Key Takeaways

The recent October crash in the cryptocurrency market was driven by whale activity and macroeconomic factors.
Bitcoin's market capitalization is down by 20.7%, and BTC is 27% below its previous peak.
Historical trends show that when retail investors panic, whales often buy the dip, but recent trends indicate whales are profiting from market downturns.
December presents a crucial time for Bitcoin, with increased whale activity suggesting potential shifts in market momentum.
Overall, the current market behavior points towards a strategic return of whales to high-risk investments as macro concerns ease.

Bitcoin whales

This incident highlighted the market's ongoing concentration issues. Nevertheless, the strategy of "buying the fear" persists as a signal for potential market recovery. As November concludes, Bitcoin whales seem to be returning to this age-old strategy.

Understanding the Current Market Landscape

We are now well into the fourth quarter of the year, and the September crash continues to impact the market significantly. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has dropped by 20.7% to $3.06 trillion, marking it as the steepest quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2022.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at nearly 27% below its pre-crash level of $122,000, leading to a -20% return on investment for this quarter — its worst quarterly performance since 2018. What initiated this downturn?

Bitcoin LTHs

Source: Glassnode

A mix of macroeconomic factors contributed to the sell-off. Issues like U.S.–China tariff tensions, controversy around MSCI, scrutiny of MicroStrategy (MSTR), a looming federal shutdown, and a Fed data blackout created a climate of fear, pushing retail investors to panic and leading to widespread liquidations. However, the situation extended beyond these macro issues.

Long-term holders (LTHs) from the early days of Bitcoin sold off significant amounts, while both new and established whales also offloaded their holdings. Collectively, this coordinated exit resulted in a reduction of approximately 180,000 BTC in supply held by long-term investors.

Whales Use Futures to Capitalize on Market Fear

Historically, when retail investors panic, whales tend to seize the opportunity. For example, during the 2022 market cycle, Bitcoin fell from about $66,000 to $42,000, yet large wallets (those holding between 100 to 10,000 BTC) accumulated around 67,000 BTC, valued at approximately $3.44 billion back then. This is the classic “buy the fear” scenario.

In recent times, however, the large sell-off by whales has raised questions about the decentralization aspect of cryptocurrencies, as a few big holders continue to exerts influence over market direction. This has led to strategic moves in futures markets, increasing short-term volatility.

shorts

Source: Alphractal

In simple terms, instead of buying during the dip, some whales have managed to profit from the market crash. For instance, Hypurrscan reported that a whale initiated a 10x short position worth $235 million just ten days post-sell-off. Subsequent analysis revealed similar actions.

As depicted in the chart, the delta between Bitcoin whales and retail traders has shifted into a positive range, indicating that whales may be reducing their long positions or increasing their shorts compared to retail investors. Does this indicate that a market bottom is still far away?

Whales Influence Year-End Market Trends

December marks a crucial turning point for the market. During the latter half of 2025, Bitcoin has achieved three consecutive all-time highs, yet the difference between them has been less than 5%. This signals weak buying pressure at peak levels, limiting continued upward momentum.

Given this context, it is not surprising that Bitcoin whales are shifting towards short positions. Nevertheless, on-chain data for both Bitcoin and Ripple (XRP) shows a significant increase in whale outflows, suggesting renewed positioning could influence momentum as the year concludes.

XRP

Source: CryptoQuant

Notably, XRP whale outflows reached 116 million XRP throughout November, aligning with its sideways trading action around $2.20. Likewise, the number of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC has increased.

When considering the strategic exits, leverage fluctuations, and signals of renewed accumulation, the market appears to be undergoing a “healthy” reset. Bitcoin whales may be eyeing the $85k–$90k range as a potential entry point. With macroeconomic uncertainties dissipating, recent controversies cooling off, and the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaching—certain to bring discussions of interest rate cuts—December could see renewed momentum among savvy investors.

In this scenario, whale outflows seem to reflect a calculated return to risk.