Galaxy Analyst Cautions Bitcoin May Fall to $63K Due to Ownership Gap

Summary:
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, predicts that Bitcoin could decrease by 19%, reaching as low as $63,000. This alarming forecast stems from a notable gap in onchain ownership observed between the $70,000 and $80,000 ranges. Despite trading more than 38% below its all-time high of $126,298 set on October 6, 2025, the market appears to struggle with persistent underlying weaknesses.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price may fall to $63,000, according to Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn.
A significant ownership gap exists between $70,000 and $80,000, leading to potential selling pressure.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience drawdowns of at least 50% from its all-time highs.
The 200-week moving average and realized price levels will be crucial support zones if Bitcoin continues to decline.

Galaxy Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $63K Due to Ownership Gap

Understanding the Ownership Gap

The $70K-$80K Ownership Gap Spells Trouble

Galaxy Research has analyzed Bitcoin's supply data, revealing a noticeable ownership gap within the $70,000-$80,000 range.

Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Supply at Price Last Moved Onchain

The bulk of approximately 194,000 BTC was last traded between $77,000 and $79,500 and these positions were established in the last two days, indicating they are relatively weak and may not withstand selling pressure. Over the past few months, significant purchases occurred between $80,000 and $92,000, while other levels have faced selling activity.

Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - URPD Difference Between Chart

Thorn explained, “Although Bitcoin might experience fluctuations around the historical maximum discount to ETF cost basis of -10% (currently around $76,000), there is a strong likelihood that Bitcoin will approach the lower end of the supply gap ($70,000), potentially testing the realized price ($56,000) and the 200-week moving average ($58,000) in the upcoming weeks to months.”

Historical Trends Indicate Possible Downturn

Historical Patterns Signal Deeper Pain Ahead

Except for 2017, Bitcoin has historically experienced a 40% drawdown from its all-time high, which has usually resulted in an even larger drop of 50% or more within three months.

A 50% decline from the current all-time high would put Bitcoin at exactly $63,000, a level Thorn identifies as a likely challenge point moving forward. Data from Galaxy Research indicates that, during previous bull markets in 2013/14, 2017/18, 2019, and 2021, the 50-week moving average served as essential support.

Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Key Levels Chart

However, when this level was breached, the price reverted to the 200-week moving average each time. Bitcoin lost this 50-week support in November 2025, and the 200-week moving average now stands at $58,000. The realized price, which reflects the average cost basis of coins based on their last movements onchain, is around $56,000, highlighting another crucial support area to monitor.

Bitcoin vs. Traditional Assets

Gold Outperforms as Bitcoin Struggles With Narrative

Since the start of the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has not performed as well as traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, a situation that financial analysts have noted with concern.

Investors are shifting towards commodities in response to rising trade tensions and anxieties regarding the stability of global sovereign debt.

Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Price Chart

Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and global applicability led many to expect it would thrive under these circumstances. However, it has instead lagged behind more established hard assets, diminishing its status among investors seeking safety amidst economic uncertainty.

Future Price Predictions

Where Could BTC Bottom Hold?

Galaxy Research anticipated that the unpredictable nature of 2026 would make it challenging to set an end-of-year price target for Bitcoin. This assessment has only become more evidently accurate as the year progresses.

Despite the gloomy near-term forecast, opportunities could arise at lower price levels. Thorn highlighted that Bitcoin has historically found support around or slightly below its realized price before recovering during previous bear market bottoms.

Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Key Levels Chart

If Bitcoin's price approaches the 200-week moving average at $58,000 or the realized price at $56,000, Galaxy Research believes these levels could offer strong entry points for long-term investors, consistent with trends seen in past market cycles.