Global Easing Reaches 35-Year Peak—Why Is Bitcoin Static?

Summary: Over the past year, more than 90% of global central banks have either reduced interest rates or maintained them, marking a significant easing phase not seen in 35 years. This trend has resulted in 316 rate cuts over two years, even surpassing the rate cuts during the 2008–2010 financial crisis. Despite this increase in liquidity, Bitcoin has not responded as expected, raising questions about its future movements.

Key Takeaways

More than 90% of central banks have kept interest rates steady or cut them over the last year.
A total of 316 rate cuts have occurred, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Bitcoin has shown a disconnection from money supply growth since mid-2025.
Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin typically lags increases in global liquidity by 60 to 70 days, with a potential rally anticipated in late 2025 or 2026.
Analysts highlight 2026 as a critical year for potential market shifts, aligned with the historical Benner Cycle.
Recent performance of Bitcoin could indicate a strong buying opportunity while it remains undervalued.

Unprecedented Monetary Easing Since COVID-19

The global monetary landscape has witnessed its most aggressive easing cycle since the COVID-19 pandemic. According to data from The Kobeissi Letter, fewer than 10% of central banks have raised rates, while the vast majority have either cut or maintained them. This trend has been consistent for the past year, representing a rare global monetary shift.

The depth of this easing is evident in the cumulative number of rate reductions. From 2023 to early 2025, both developed and emerging market central banks recorded 316 rate cuts. This figure surpasses the 313 cuts seen during the tumultuous period of 2008 to 2010, when the global financial system was under enormous strain.

Historically, coordinated monetary easing has led to notable increases in asset prices, particularly for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, Bitcoin’s reaction to this surge in liquidity has been unexpectedly subdued compared to prior cycles. Earlier studies identified a strong correlation (0.94) between Bitcoin's price and the global M2 money supply from May 2013 to July 2024, but this relationship appears to be temporarily weakened.

This disconnect raises important questions about market timing and influencing factors. Analysts note that Bitcoin typically lags behind global liquidity increases by approximately 60 to 70 days. If past trends hold true, the current monetary expansion might postpone any Bitcoin rally until late 2025 or into 2026.

Forecast for Financial Shocks in 2026

Market analysts are outlining a potential scenario that may unfold through 2028, with a significant turning point anticipated in 2026. This aligns with the historical patterns indicated by the Benner Cycle, a 19th-century market timing tool that has successfully predicted numerous financial trends.

According to analyst NoLimitGains, various global stressors are converging towards 2026. These include potential issues in US Treasury funding, risks associated with Japan's yen carry trade, and China's significant credit leverage. Any disruption in these areas could trigger global financial shocks, and simultaneous failures could lead to a systemic crisis.

The first phase of this scenario involves a funding shock in the U.S. Treasury market, which could be initiated by weak bond auctions. As the U.S. faces record debt issuance in 2026 amid growing deficits and declining foreign demand, poor auction results and diminishing indirect bids echo the 2022 UK gilt crisis. In such a scenario, the dollar might surge, liquidity could dwindle, Japan may intervene, the yuan might depreciate, credit spreads could widen, and risk assets might face sell-offs.

🚨 Important Alert: Major financial shifts are anticipated for 2026, and preliminary signs are already emerging.

Phase two would likely involve central banks intervening through liquidity injections, swap lines, and Treasury buybacks. This governmental action would infuse capital into the economy, paving the way for the inflation many analysts expect between 2026 and 2028. During this phase, real yields may fall sharply, assets like gold and silver could rise, Bitcoin might rebound, and other commodities may gain traction as the dollar peaks.

The MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, is already on the rise. When indicators like the MOVE, USD/JPY exchange rate, the Chinese yuan, and 10-year Treasury yields begin to trend in the same direction, analysts interpret this as a warning signal that a significant market event could be imminent within the next one to three months.

Bitcoin's Delay May Present a Buying Opportunity

Bitcoin’s recent performance underscores its unusual disconnection from global liquidity expansion since mid-2025. Despite the central banks' efforts to boost the money supply, Bitcoin has remained stable, disappointing those who anticipated a swift price increase.

On a positive note, this slow response might represent a buying opportunity as Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to global liquidity. Historically, Bitcoin has often surged 60 to 70 days after significant increases in the global M2 money supply.

Some analysts suggest that market participants may be waiting for clearer signals regarding inflation and central bank policies. Others point to unresolved challenges such as regulatory developments, institutional engagement, and strong technical resistance, which could be preventing a price increase.