Has Bitcoin Hit Its Bottom? Analyst Predicts 91.5% Certainty

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has made a strong assertion regarding Bitcoin's market status, claiming a 91.5% certainty that the cryptocurrency has already reached its lowest point. In a recent thread on X (formerly Twitter) dated December 4, he stated, “F*ck it. I’m putting my neck on the line here. I’m 91.5% certain that the BTC bottom is in. And if it is, A LOT of people are about to be caught offside.”

Key Takeaways

Analyst Miles Deutscher confidently projects a 91.5% chance that Bitcoin has reached its bottom.
His analysis is based on four main factors: market reactions to news, the impact of past FUD events, market flows, and the liquidity environment.
Notable reasons for his optimism include Bitcoin's recent price behavior against negative news, historical patterns, and shifting investor attitudes.
However, he cautions that market conditions can change distinctly and advises caution due to existing pressures.

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Is the Bitcoin Bottom Truly Here?

Deutscher's confidence relies on four significant factors, which he refers to as "pillars": the market's response to news, the historical impact of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) events, shifting market flows, and an improving global liquidity situation. He uses these pillars to calculate an impressive 91.5 out of 100 bullish rating.

Market Reaction to News
Deutscher analyzes Bitcoin’s price movements in relation to various headlines. Lately, he notes that the market has absorbed a wave of negative news, including renewed worries over Tether, news about China re-banning crypto, and scrutiny of MicroStrategy. He observes that, “Despite all this bad news, price rallied,” marking this as a significant shift for Bitcoin during this downturn. He emphasizes a key trading principle: "The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. This tells you everything you need to know."
Effect of FUD Events
The second pillar involves examining past FUD incidents and their correlation with local price lows. Deutscher reveals that he analyzed every instance where Tether, China, BOJ (Bank of Japan), and MicroStrategy faced similar negative media. His findings are clear: “Every single time, these FUD events marked a local bottom.” This pillar receives a perfect score of 28 out of 28 in his model. While he mentions that this factor alone is not definitive, combined with the first pillar, it introduces a persuasive bullish argument.
Market Flows
Deutscher identifies the flow of funds as a crucial factor. Recently, flows had been “aggressively negative” with long-term investors offloading assets. However, he reports a shift, indicating that ETF inflows are beginning to stabilize and increase, and that large investors (whales) have halted their selling spree. This pillar scores 22.5 out of 25 in his assessment, although he notes ongoing risks as long as certain pressures (DATs) remain.
Global Liquidity and Macro Conditions
The final pillar looks at the broader economic landscape, where Deutscher notes a significant tightening of market liquidity that has recently started to ease. He mentions positive macroeconomic factors and the anticipated appointment of a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve chair, alongside the official end of Quantitative Tightening (QT). This factors into a score of 9 out of 10 in his framework.

Taking all four pillars together leads to a headline score of 91.5/100, indicating a strongly bullish outlook for Bitcoin.

However, Deutscher also shares some important considerations. He highlights that the U.S. markets have surged significantly, which could necessitate a correction. He points out that certain pressures still exist and draws attention to potential fluctuations in ETF flows. Thus, his conclusion reflects a probabilistic outlook: "Markets are a game of probabilities, and I think the odds are in favor of the bottom being in—given the extreme FUD we’ve had and the market’s reaction to it."

At the time of this report, Bitcoin was trading at $91,035.

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