Has Bitcoin Lost Its Whale Support? Historical Trends Indicate Possible Price Recovery

Bitcoin's current price sits around $89,700, showing little movement today and down approximately 2% over the last week. While the price action may appear weak at first glance, deeper analysis reveals some intriguing developments.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin's price is currently around $89,700, showing minimal movement recently.
Whale activity is declining, leading to concerns about potential selling pressure.
Some indicators suggest that selling pressure may be lessening, offering a cautious outlook.
Key price levels to watch for Bitcoin are $89,250 for support, and $91,320 for potential upward momentum.

Key Bitcoin holders, often referred to as "whales," are starting to step back. Evidence from on-chain data indicates a steady distribution trend over recent weeks. Despite this trend, Bitcoin has not experienced a significant decline. This resilience is noteworthy, especially since a separate on-chain indicator suggests that the selling pressure might be dwindling, even with the decreased involvement from large holders.

Are Whales Selling Out, or Is Selling Pressure Lessening?

Recent data on Bitcoin whale addresses shows a clear downtrend. The 30-day change in whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has declined to −72, marking the lowest point since late November. The total number of whale accounts is also nearing monthly lows, indicating that these large holders are opting to reduce their stakes rather than accumulate more Bitcoin.

Whale Position Reduction: Data sourced from Glassnode

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It’s worth noting that many of these whales are reallocating their investments towards Ethereum (ETH), suggesting a more favorable outlook for the second-largest cryptocurrency.

🚨 Acceleration in Whale Rotation

One notable transaction involved a large whale who exchanged:
🔹 502.8 $BTC for 14,500 $ETH
🔹 Approximately $45.24 million

This wasn’t an isolated incident.

The same wallet converted:
🔹 1,969 $BTC
🔹 into 58,149 $ETH

This action signifies capital rotation rather than panic selling.

When whales make such rotations, they are…

— BMNR Bullz (@BMNRBullz)

Typically, this type of activity would lead to more substantial pullbacks, but that hasn’t been the case this time.

One possible explanation for this stability is the Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Constant, a metric from Glassnode that assesses loss-taking behavior alongside price volatility. This metric reveals periods where a significant number of sellers are at a loss, while volatility remains low. Historically, these conditions signal low-risk price bottoms for Bitcoin.

Currently, this metric registers around 0.019, a level last observed on April 5, when Bitcoin was trading at approximately $83,500. In the following six weeks, the price surged over 33%, reaching a peak near $111,600. The current reading is slightly lower but still within the same historical exhaustion zone.

Are Bitcoin Sellers Losing Steam?: Data from Glassnode

While this does not guarantee an upward price movement, it does indicate that the risk of further decline is decreasing.

Key Levels for Bitcoin Price: What Will Determine the Next Movement?

Despite the ongoing whale selling, Bitcoin continues to remain above $89,250, a crucial support level. As long as this level holds in daily closes, bearish sentiment will face challenges in asserting control.

If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $91,320 mark, momentum is likely to increase rapidly. This could pave the way toward $94,660, where previous supply levels exist. A decisive breakout beyond this point would shift the market dynamics favorably for bullish traders.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Data from TradingView

The levels of invalidation are straightforward. A daily close below $89,250 could undermine the current exhaustion rationale and expose the price to declines towards $87,570 and $85,900.