Has Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Broken? Is the Bull Market Truly Over?

Summary: This article explores whether Bitcoin's typical four-year boom-and-bust cycle has been disrupted. Analyzing market indicators and insights from industry experts, it raises the possibility of a bearish phase ahead of new all-time highs.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s historical four-year boom-and-bust cycle may be changing due to factors like ETFs, treasuries, and macroeconomic trends.
A bearish phase is a possibility before achieving any new peak prices.

Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle closely linked to its halving events, with prices generally peaking 12-18 months after each halving before entering a lengthy bear market. Recent trends suggest this pattern may still be in place, as Bitcoin hit approximately $126,200 in October 2025, exactly eighteen months after the April 2024 halving. However, it has since dropped by over 30%.

BTC/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Veteran analysts, including Peter Brandt, predict that Bitcoin might fall toward $25,000 in the upcoming months, reflecting the early stages of past bearish trends.

Has Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Broken? Is the Bull Market Truly Over?

Bitcoin Traders Facing Losses

João Wedson, the founder of the on-chain analytics firm Alphractal, highlighted the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal, a significant indicator that could imply the end of the current Bitcoin bull market.

Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) trend signal. Source: Alphractal

Traditionally, SOPR marks pivotal moments in the market by observing the shift between profit-taking and selling at a loss. During bull markets, the SOPR remains above 1, indicating that coins are being sold at a profit, often preceding local peaks. Conversely, near potential bottoms, it tends to drop toward or below 1, suggesting a widespread realization of losses. As of December, the SOPR has been trending downward, signaling that Bitcoin is being sold at lower profits or even at losses, reinforcing the bearish outlook aligned with the four-year cycle.

"You may believe that Bitcoin’s cycles have changed and that this time is different," Wedson commented, adding context to the current market conditions.

Predictions for Bitcoin's Future

Despite some experts acknowledging the possibility that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is no longer valid, optimism remains. Grayscale Investments, based in the U.S., forecasts that Bitcoin’s price will achieve a new all-time high in the first half of 2026. They attribute this anticipated increase to a growing macroeconomic demand stemming from currency debasement and a favorable regulatory environment in the U.S.

"Fiat currencies, along with any assets denominated in fiat, face additional risks due to the increasing public sector debt and its potential implications for inflation over time," Grayscale explained in their latest report.

US federal government debt as a share of GDP. Source: Grayscale

Bitcoin May Enter a Supercycle

Fidelity shared a cautiously optimistic perspective in its crypto outlook report for 2026, discussing the potential for Bitcoin to enter a "supercycle." This scenario could resemble the commodity supercycles of the 2000s that spanned nearly a decade.

Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, emphasized the emergence of a new group of investors, which may support prolonged market expansion beyond previous cycles.

"We’ve observed that traditional money managers and investors have started to buy Bitcoin and other digital assets," he noted.

As of December, Bitcoin ETFs backed by firms like BlackRock and Fidelity collectively held over 1.30 million BTC (valued at approximately $114.13 billion), reflecting a 309% increase since their introduction in January 2024.

US Bitcoin ETF balances. Source: Glassnode

Simultaneously, public companies were holding over 1.08 million BTC (about $100.42 billion) in their treasuries, marking an investor category that barely existed before 2020.

Bitcoin treasury balances. Source: Glassnode

As Bitcoin miner involvement continues to diminish with each halving event, the rising demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries might be changing the traditional boom-and-bust dynamics that have historically characterized Bitcoin's four-year cycle.