Historic $27 Billion Options Expiry: Impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum

On December 26, the crypto markets are preparing for an unprecedented year-end event, with more than $27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options set to expire on Deribit. This figure constitutes over half of the total open interest on the derivatives exchange.

Key Takeaways

Over $27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring, marking a historic event.
Bitcoin accounts for $23.6 billion, while Ethereum represents $3.8 billion of the expiring options.
Call options outnumber puts nearly 3:1, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders.
The "max pain" levels are at approximately $95,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000 for Ethereum.
Rollover activity is prominent as institutions manage their positions ahead of the expiry.
Market volatility remains low, suggesting a more stable conclusion despite the large expirations.

This massive "Boxing Day" expiry could signal one of the most significant structural changes in the history of cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Record $27 Billion Options Expiry

Today’s options expiry is notable, surpassing last week’s expirations, as it coincides with the final Friday of the month and the year. Specifically, these options are for both the month and the fourth quarter (Q4 2025).

The figures are remarkable, with Bitcoin representing $23.6 billion of the total expiring options and Ethereum making up the remaining $3.8 billion. Currently, Bitcoin is priced around $88,596, while Ethereum trades at $2,956.

Call options are clearly in the lead, outnumbering puts nearly three to one, reflecting a strongly bullish sentiment among traders. The so-called "max pain" levels are positioned near $95,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000 for Ethereum—the price points that are most favorable for options sellers while causing the greatest losses for buyers.

As per Deribit, today’s expiry encompasses more than 50% of the exchange’s entire open interest, making it the largest recorded expiration.

“…the largest expiry on record - representing over half of total open interest -… Following the expiry, market flows will be more relevant than price. Watch how positions shift. What will be the market's reaction to such a massive expiry?” analysts at Deribit questioned.

The max pain theory, though sometimes contested, indicates that spot prices commonly trend toward these levels as traders and institutions fine-tune their hedges before the expiry.

Currently, rollover activity is the main driver in the trading market. Many institutions are transferring positions into January contracts to lower their risk, which is generating noise in the short-term options data.

Greeks.live points out that while puts made up 30% of recent block trades, this should not be seen as a bearish outlook. Traders moving into positions discarded by institutions can find favorable pricing in this current environment, according to analysts.

With the annual expiration approaching, over half of all options are scheduled to expire today, December 26th. Rollover trades are now the leading force in trading volume.

This high activity generates significant signal noise, making options data less reliable as an indicator for trading in recent days.

Declining Volatility, Yet Year-End Expiry Could Influence 2026 Direction

Despite the sheer magnitude of this event, the market remains relatively steady. Bitcoin’s implied 30-day volatility index (DVOL) stands at approximately 42%, a decline from 63% in late November. This suggests that extreme market swings are unlikely and that the expiry may conclude in a more orderly manner than initially anticipated.

The implications of this expiry extend beyond just the event itself. The movements following the expiry are expected to influence market trends, potentially reducing upside resistance.

Traders are keeping an eye on key strike prices. How institutions handle any leftover or rolled-over positions will likely dictate price movements in the early weeks of 2026.

Investors should be aware that significant expiries like this typically incite volatility as traders rush to close trades or rollover positions. Therefore, the choice to allow the December put open interest to expire at 08:00 UTC on Deribit, or to extend them, might reveal whether the downside risk is merely year-end driven or if it signals a larger structural shift.

With more than half of Deribit’s open interest expiring in a single day, Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching a pivotal moment in the market.

Today's options expiry signifies both opportunity and risk. It introduces a rare combination of scale, positioning, and seasonal liquidity that could significantly influence crypto trends as we head into 2026.