How Long Will the Bitcoin Bear Market Last? Insights from CryptoQuant Research

Amid discussions surrounding Bitcoin's recent dip below $75,000, the pressing question arises: How long will the bear market extend when the data continues to show weakness? Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, shared his insights during an appearance on The Milk Road Show on February 2. He asserts that key demand and liquidity indicators are still reflecting weakness, suggesting that the process to reach a bottom may take several months rather than a few weeks.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently in a prolonged bear market, with indicators suggesting it may last months longer.
The CryptoQuant "Bull Score Index" is at historically low levels, reflecting excessive bearish sentiment.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from net buyers to net sellers, negatively impacting prices.
The Coinbase premium has turned negative, indicating that U.S. demand remains weak.
Enthusiasm for leveraged positions is declining, as shown by falling futures funding rates.
A bottom could potentially emerge around Q3 2026, depending on subsequent demand and liquidity recovery.

How Long Will The Bitcoin Bear Market Last? CryptoQuant Research Chief Predicts

The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Now Unmistakable

According to Moreno, the foundation of his analysis is based on CryptoQuant’s "Bull Score Index," which combines ten different metrics that assess on-chain valuation, liquidity conditions, market data, and a key technical trend. “The index ranges from zero to 100, where zero indicates extreme bearish sentiment and 100 represents extreme bullishness,” he explained. Currently, the index is hovering between zero and ten, indicating significant bearish conditions. This sustained low level over the past month and a half points to persistent weakness in both market data and overall market conditions.

Moreno noted how rapidly the index transitioned from bullish to bearish during a liquidation event in October. At that time, the index peaked at 80, a strong bullish signal, before plummeting to the 20–30 range within just a few days, illustrating a momentum failure. This rapid change indicates that the index often signals a bearish sentiment before significant price corrections occur, acting as an early-warning system rather than just reacting to price changes. He concluded that Bitcoin is "well in bear market" territory, with current data failing to support any substantial reversal.

Regarding demand, Moreno pointed out that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs turned into net sellers in the last quarter of 2025, continuing to exert downward pressure into early 2026. He highlighted that, year to date, ETFs have sold over 10,000 BTC in January alone, in stark contrast to the 46,000 BTC purchased in the same period last year. “If ETFs are net sellers, it is not supportive for prices,” he remarked, emphasizing that any meaningful recovery will necessitate a stabilization and increase in demand.

This shift in demand was also apparent in the Coinbase premium, which refers to the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges such as Binance. Moreno identified the negative premium that has persisted since November as a sign that U.S. demand has not returned, as higher demand typically fuels bull markets.

Additionally, Moreno pointed to a lack of stablecoin liquidity as a significant factor. He observed that the 60-day changes in USDT market cap—a measure of new capital entering the market—have effectively stalled since mid-October. He explained that new stablecoin issuance typically funds exchanges, providing necessary liquidity for crypto traders.

Beyond these observations, Moreno noted that CryptoQuant’s long-term Bitcoin demand growth model remains near zero on a yearly basis. “Bull markets are driven by growth in demand,” he stated, but since October, there has been a notable slowdown in demand growth, contributing to ongoing downward price pressures.

Leverage positioning also appears to have weakened. By analyzing perpetual futures funding rates, Moreno found that the one-year average funding trend is declining, indicating a reduced appetite for long positions.

How Deep Into the Bitcoin Bear Market Are We Now? w/ @cryptoquant_com Head of Research @jjcmoreno Bitcoin is trading CHEAPER on Coinbase than Binance. This unusual situation suggests who is NOT buying the dip. Stay tuned for more insights. ⏱… pic.twitter.com/0uxGtntOZP — Milk Road (@MilkRoad) February 2, 2026

When Might the Bitcoin Bear Market Conclude?

On the technical front, Moreno highlighted the importance of Bitcoin’s one-year moving average, which serves as a significant trend indicator. “Observing the one-year moving average can give a clearer picture of price trends,” he explained, noting it typically provides support in bullish phases and acts as resistance when prices drop below it. Following this trend, Bitcoin fell beneath this average in early November and has not yet reclaimed that level, a pattern reminiscent of early 2022.

Moreno identified important trading levels, mentioning the "trader on-chain realized price," which indicates the cost basis of active market participants, representing resistance levels around $89,000 and $79,000. He set the next key price target at $70,000 as an interim marker, with a deeper level of $56,000 linked to the same valuation framework.

Moreno concluded with a caution about market psychology alongside chart analysis. “Recognize that we are indeed in a bear market and plan your strategies accordingly,” he stated. He warned against misinterpreting any price rallies as signals for a new bull market and cautioned against attempts to "catch the falling knife," indicating that the market bottom may take months to establish.

Looking ahead, he forecasted a potential bottoming window around the third quarter of 2026, grounded in historical patterns and the current market's earlier downturn compared to prior cycles. Whether this timeline materializes will depend more on the stability and upward movement of demand, U.S. flows, and liquidity indicators rather than a single bounce in prices.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,041.

Bitcoin price chart