Is $100,000 Within Reach for Bitcoin? Insights from Historical Trends

Bitcoin's price has recently experienced a pullback. Over the last 24 hours, BTC has declined by approximately 3%, and over the past week, it has dropped about 6.6%, now trading below $90,000 and pushing the $100,000 target further away.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a pullback, trading below $90,000.
Historical patterns suggest a potential rebound if Bitcoin reclaims key moving averages.
Whale activity remains stable, indicating confidence, while very long-term holders are contributing to selling pressure.
Key resistance levels to watch are $94,390 and $96,420; a critical support level is at $87,830.

Nevertheless, this drop is familiar territory. Previous market corrections have shown that Bitcoin can rebound sharply when certain technical factors come into play. Currently, the focus is on momentum shifts and the recovery of essential moving averages.

Analyzing Momentum and Key Moving Averages for Potential Rebound

The rebound scenario begins with a look at momentum.

On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin reveals a hidden bullish divergence. Between mid-December and late January, the BTC price created a higher low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) established a lower low. RSI is a tool used to measure momentum by comparing recent price gains and losses. When the RSI decreases but the price level remains steady, it often indicates that selling pressure is easing.

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Hidden Divergence BTC: TradingView

This shift in momentum is significant because it sets the stage for the next technical signal: the exponential moving averages (EMAs).

Recently, on the daily chart, Bitcoin fell below both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. The EMA is a type of moving average that gives more importance to recent prices, which can help detect early changes in trends.

Since June 2025, Bitcoin has consistently followed specific patterns. Each time the price reclaimed and maintained the 20-day and 50-day EMAs after a pullback, it resulted in substantial rallies:

Late June: 16.9% increase
Late September: 11.7% increase
Early January: 10% increase

BTC Price Fractals: TradingView

If the stabilization of the RSI fuels a rebound that reclaims the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, the historical range of price expansion suggests that the goal of reaching $100,000 remains feasible. But do on-chain metrics support these technical indicators?

Whale Activity Stabilizes While Long-Term Holders Affect Pricing

An analysis of on-chain data provides insight into why a rebound hasn’t initiated yet.

Whale activity appears stable. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have not decreased in number since January 14. Even with the recent price dip, the number of whales has either remained steady or increased slightly, indicating that these large investors are not responsible for the sell-off and maintaining confidence in Bitcoin.

Whales Supporting Price: Glassnode

Long-term holders (hodlers) are also active in absorbing supply, with wallets holding Bitcoin for over 155 days continuing to accumulate coins. Despite a drop between January 14 and January 20, this group increased their coin inflows by 62%.

Long-Term Holders Adding: Glassnode

However, the pressure affecting prices comes from very long-term holders.

Wallets that have held Bitcoin for over a year have ramped up selling during this downtrend. On January 14, their net outflows were about 25,700 BTC, which swelled to approximately 68,650 BTC by January 20. This 167% uptick in distribution is a major factor hindering a price recovery.

Very Long-Term Holders Still Selling: Glassnode

In summary, while whales and hodlers provide price support, very long-term holders are selling, which limits upward movement.

Key Price Levels to Watch for Bitcoin's Path Toward $100,000

This tug of war will be resolved through ensuing price actions.

On the positive side, Bitcoin must reclaim the price levels of $94,390 and $96,420. A daily close above these thresholds would indicate a successful recovery of the EMAs and validate the rebound structure. If this occurs, a rise to $100,000 (specifically the $100,240 line) would suggest a potential increase of about 12% from current values, comfortably within the historical ranges identified earlier.

On the flip side, the level of $87,830 is critical. A sustained decline below this area would diminish the RSI divergence and reveal deeper support near $84,350. This scenario would negate the rebound outlook and confirm that selling from long-term holders remains prevalent.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

Bitcoin does not require a miracle; it needs confirmation of momentum and a reclaim of the EMAs. Additionally, support from very long-term holders may be necessary. If this reclaim of the EMAs is delayed due to ongoing selling, the path back to $100,000 may be obstructed. However, if these conditions align, the historical fractal patterns that have proven effective since mid-2025 could still guide Bitcoin towards the coveted $100,000 mark.