Is Bitcoin Approaching Its ‘Absolute Bottom’? Analyst Predicts Final Shakeout Soon

Recent analysis suggests Bitcoin may be on the brink of its final correction before a new bull market. Analyst Ali Martinez highlights historical patterns and moving averages, indicating that this phase could unfold in the next few days. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's performance after a bearish pattern breakdown raises questions about potential price movements.

Key Takeaways

Ali Martinez predicts Bitcoin is nearing its final correction before a bull market.
Historically, the crossover of BTC's 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages has signaled major cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin has retraced 52% from its peak, and the SMAs crossed on February 27.
Two main accumulation zones are identified: $40,000 and $30,000.
Bitcoin is currently testing resistance levels after forming a bearish flag pattern.

BTC, Bitcoin

'Final Washout' Phase Just Ahead

In a recent analysis, market expert Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin’s (BTC) final downturn prior to the next bull market might be imminent. This assessment is based on patterns observed in Bitcoin’s historical cycles.

Martinez noted that the crossover between Bitcoin's 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has traditionally indicated the “absolute bottom” during every major cycle since 2014. Over the past twelve years, whenever these averages intersected on the three-day chart, it has reliably signaled the beginning of a “final washout” before a bull market kicks off. In the years 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin experienced declines of 50% to 72% from its cycle peaks at the time of these crossovers.

Following these events, Bitcoin typically continued to correct for 23 to 33 days, retracing an additional 45% to 52% before finding its bottom. For instance, in 2022, a new low formed 156 days later, completing the bear market structure and allowing the next bull market to begin.

Currently, Bitcoin has faced a 52% drop from its peak in October 2025. The SMAs crossed on February 27, and according to Martinez, today marks exactly 30 days into this cycle. He suggests that if past trends hold true, we may soon enter the “Final Accumulation Window” within the next three to six days.

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Martinez mentions that while the final leg down may seem daunting, historical trends indicate that this crossover serves as a “Golden Opportunity” for long-term investors. He identifies two significant accumulation zones: the $40,000 and $30,000 price levels.

“Structurally, this setup has historically aligned with the last major downside move before a generational macro bottom forms, and the countdown to the next vertical move has begun.”

Is Bitcoin’s Bear Flag Breakdown Confirmed?

After closing the previous week near $66,000, Bitcoin has bounced back to the $67,000-$68,000 range to retest a key level from below. For nearly two months, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $62,000 and $74,000, during which it has formed a bearish flag pattern.

Bitcoin has been testing both the lower and upper boundaries of this bearish formation on the daily chart since early February. Following a correction last week, BTC fell over 10% from its recent highs to a four-week low of $65,000.

As a result of this performance, Bitcoin broke through the lower boundary of its bearish flag pattern, raising the chance of a second downward leg. Analyst Crypto Jelle noted that the cryptocurrency is currently attempting to retest this formation from below. If BTC is rejected at this level, it could indicate that support has converted to resistance.

Additionally, Jelle highlighted that Bitcoin's bear market lows have traditionally formed beneath the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level, suggesting that the cryptocurrency's bottom could be below $57,000. He concludes, “Is this time different? I doubt it.”

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In summary, as the crypto community watches closely, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s next moves, awaiting confirmation of patterns and potential buying opportunities.