Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? The Significance of January 20

Bitcoin's recent price drop of 36% has led to discussions about a potential bear market within the crypto community. However, trader Cristian Chifoi provides a different perspective, focusing on price behavior following significant rebounds and seasonal timing. His analysis suggests that understanding Bitcoin's future movements, especially around January 20, will be crucial in determining whether we are in a bear market or just experiencing a temporary correction.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price has fallen 36% from its peak, prompting discussions of a bear market.
Trader Cristian Chifoi emphasizes the importance of analyzing price rebounds and timing rather than just the magnitude of price drops.
He outlines two potential scenarios for Bitcoin's price behavior around January 20, which could indicate a pivot point for future movements.
Monitoring how Bitcoin reacts post-rebound will help determine the trend direction: a continuation of a bear market or a shift into a new uptrend.

Bitcoin bear market warning news

Understanding Bitcoin's Price Movements

Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline of 36% from its recent high, leading to the discussion of whether a "bear market" is upon us. Trader Cristian Chifoi, however, believes that focusing solely on the price drop overlooks important signals; particularly, what occurs after the first significant rebound and how Bitcoin's price behaves during observational timeframes he describes as "seasonality windows."

Chifoi claims that many analysts tend to present reactive narratives once volatility has materialized. He notes, “A straightforward approach to assess if Bitcoin is in a bear market is not merely after a 36% correction, as many crypto analysts suggest.” He points out that the same analysts previously indicated a "supercycle" back in November 2021, when prices were experiencing an impressive rise of over 100%.

The core question he raises is less about the percentage decline and more about whether future price increases indicate genuine strength or merely a weak counter-movement that will not endure.

Evaluating Bitcoin's Market Status

Chifoi's primary angle involves analyzing Bitcoin in conjunction with USDT dominance (USDT.D)—which he refers to as an “inverted BTC chart.” He asserts that timing is essential, arguing that the current downturn has already lasted a minimum duration he tracks across market cycles.

“For traders and non-traders alike, I recommend using time as your principal indicator and price as your secondary one,” he advises. “We’ve seen a 77-day correction from peak to trough already, and the price can't go lower. That is the signal; the rest is just noise.”

From this analysis, he believes that confirming the presence of a bear market hinges on Bitcoin's potential bouncing back and maintaining momentum. He specifies targets for USDT.D—initially around 5.5% and lower levels around 4.7%—and correlates these with prospective BTC price levels. He mentions that a movement "a little over 100k" could still be interpreted as a "dead cat bounce" if it lacks adherence over a few weeks, indicating potential market weakness instead of a buy signal for renewed growth.

In a second scenario—one possibly troubling to both skeptics of a dead cycle and premature bear market callers—Bitcoin could manage to reach a higher high, possibly between $115,000 and $120,000, but then stagnate over an extended period. According to Chifoi, even this could align with a bear market shift if time passes without sufficient price increases, thus converting what might initially appear as a breakout into a distribution-like peak.

Seasonal Trends and Future Movements

Chifoi also introduces the concept of seasonality, particularly focusing on a timeframe around January 20 (plus or minus a few days), extending into late March or early April. He claims to track this period as a significant decision point since early 2026, suggesting it presents two possible paths: either Bitcoin rallies into this date establishing a high point before a downturn, or it sets a low point around that date with potential for upward movement afterwards.

“A surge into January 20, reaching over $100-$110k would denote a high pivot and a subsequent decline into the next time pivot,” he explains. Conversely, if January 20 marks a low pivot, it would indicate the potential for growth towards the subsequent pivot.

As of now, Chifoi leans towards the latter scenario, observing, “At this point, it appears evident that we are forming a pivot low, and the next movement will contrast with the trend from October 6th until now.”

He categorizes most market participants into two distinct groups: those anticipating a supercycle or asserting the current cycle's framework is broken, and those who claim a bear market began in October, ending in October 2026, akin to 2022. He warns that both groups might face adverse positioning if Bitcoin hits a new peak in the coming weeks before experiencing a decline post-April.

Chifoi’s outlook is broader and time-sensitive: he predicts the possibility of a new high followed by a prolonged decrease into late 2026 or early 2027, referring to this period as his next significant time pivot. The takeaway emphasizes that understanding the forthcoming rebound and the January-to-spring timeframe will define whether we are looking at a reset within a larger uptrend or the onset of a longer-term transition from distribution to downturn.

“Stay vigilant in the coming weeks,” he asserts. “While I can’t predict what will unfold, I have prepared a plan that I will adjust according to which scenario plays out since I am ready for either outcome.”

At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $92,836.

Bitcoin price chart

Bitcoin is below the crucial 0.618 Fib level, indicating important market dynamics.