Is Bitcoin Entering a New 2-Year Cycle?

For over ten years, Bitcoin enthusiasts have relied on a predictable four-year cycle to guide them through bull runs, market declines, and shifts triggered by halving events. As 2025 approaches, this well-established model appears to be losing relevance, prompting analysts to search for a new framework to predict Bitcoin's future direction.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, but analysts are exploring the idea of a new two-year cycle.
Shifts in institutional investment and changing market dynamics challenge the relevance of the traditional cycle.
Shorter cycles could change how investors evaluate timing and volatility.
Jeff Park shares insights on market structure and liquidity in the context of Bitcoin’s evolving landscape.

Some experts suggest that institutional investment is transforming the market landscape. Others point to a diminishing influence of halving events, the emergence of AI as a competing investment option, and changing global liquidity trends that do not align with previous patterns. Regardless of the reasons, it is evident that Bitcoin's price movements are evolving.

In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, Jeff Park, the partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, questions the validity of the four-year cycle, suggesting that Bitcoin might be transitioning to a much quicker and dynamic two-year cycle.

Shifts in Market Structure

Park asserts that the dynamics of Bitcoin’s market structure have changed, with institutional investment flows operating under different motivations compared to retail investors.

At the heart of Park’s perspective lies a thought-provoking hypothesis: shorter cycles may significantly alter how investors approach timing, volatility, and Bitcoin’s trajectory heading into 2026.

He also discusses why some market participants may benefit from short-term weaknesses and explores how liquidity patterns correlate with this emerging cycle. Moreover, Park examines the potential implications of this transition for Bitcoin’s next significant movement.

For a deeper understanding of Park's two-year cycle theory and its potential impact on Bitcoin's future, check out the full interview available on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel.