Is Bitcoin Heading for Another 2022 Crash? Analyst Warns of Rising-Channel Breakdown

Image Owned By The Crypto Basic. Logo Displayed In The Image Are Owned By Respective Crypto Project

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a pullback that mirrors the rising-channel breakdown pattern observed before the 2022 market downturn. As Bitcoin trades at $86,301, it faces ongoing losses, raising concerns among analysts regarding its potential future trajectory.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently priced at $86,301, reflecting a 0.5% daily decline and a 9.6% loss over the week.
A comparison to the 2021-2022 period suggests it may be repeating a similar trend, with a rising channel breakdown.
Analysts predict potential price movements based on this pattern, with significant support levels at $80,000 and targeted downside prices identified.
Data shows short-term holders are selling at losses, indicating market bearishness.

Bitcoin's Current Position

Bitcoin is currently valued at $86,301, down 0.5% in the last 24 hours, contributing to a total weekly loss of 9.6%. This recent downturn has now resulted in a 23% decline over the past month. Analyst CryptoBullet has drawn attention to a chart indicating that Bitcoin is once again trading within a rising channel, much like the one seen in late 2021 leading up to the 2022 crash. CryptoBullet remarked, “Déjà vu all over again,” emphasizing the striking similarities between the current situation and the previous cycle.

Revisiting the 2021–2022 Bitcoin Breakdown

In the early cycle from January to November 2021, Bitcoin consistently traded within an upward channel. It peaked at over $64,000 in April and reached nearly $68,000 in November before entering a bear market. In this timeframe, Bitcoin’s price eventually fell towards the lower trendline at $33,500, initially supported throughout mid-2021. However, this support vanished in 2022, with Bitcoin dropping below its 50-week moving average, signaling a weakening trend. This led to a rapid decline that brought Bitcoin's price down to around $15,000 by late 2022.

Current Cycle Similarities

The chart indicates that Bitcoin's price action in 2025 is unfolding within a very similar channel. Bitcoin reached the upper boundary of this channel in October, hitting an all-time high above $126,000, only to face a significant reversal. As it tests the lower boundary again, now below $86,000, Bitcoin has fallen below the important 50-week moving average, echoing the pre-2022 conditions. Analysts predict two possible scenarios: either a rebound towards the mid-channel range of $100,000 to $110,000 or a deeper breakdown that could put targets at $63,000 and $43,500 at risk.

Analysts’ Predictions Moving Forward

Various analysts are providing their insights on the recent pullback. Analyst Vivek Sen noted Bitcoin appears to have undergone a typical 30% correction, landing in the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement area around $89,000. He believes that the current situation may lead to a strong rebound, labeling it as “Bitcoin is about to go parabolic,” if historical patterns repeat themselves.

Short-term Holders' Actions

Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals that short-term Bitcoin holders are again selling at a loss. Analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that the current dip resembles previous corrective lows, which might signify either the end of the market pullback or the onset of a more profound decline. While he doesn’t anticipate a drastic 70% drop, he cautions that breaching the $80,000 level could heighten downside risk. Currently, Bitcoin remains approximately 32% below its all-time high set in early October, with nearly a 10% weekly loss.

In another observation, analyst Captain Faibik noted that Bitcoin is still caught below a significant resistance area. He suggests that a confirmed breakout could lead to a price increase of 10% to 12%, targeting around $96,541. Furthermore, CryptoQuant indicates that the overall market environment is the most pessimistic since January 2023, citing weak institutional inflows and a Bull Score Index of 20, with expectations that the current cycle may extend into 2026.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article reflect the author's personal opinions and do not represent the views of The Crypto Basic. Readers should conduct independent research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not accountable for any financial losses.