Is Bitcoin's Downward Trend Just Beginning? Insights from Analysis

Summary:
Bitcoin (BTC) has started to show signs of a prolonged decline following its peak in October 2025. An experienced crypto analyst suggests that the leading cryptocurrency has not yet reached its lowest point in the current macro bear market, despite some significant drops. Historical analysis indicates that the ongoing crash could last for several more months, prompting investors and traders to recalibrate their expectations.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has entered a significant downtrend after peaking in October 2025.
Historical patterns reveal that previous cycles lasted significantly longer than anticipated downturns.
Bitcoin is still 42% below its all-time high of $126,000, indicating potential for further losses.
The market may not experience a quick recovery, with expected accumulation phases lasting more than a year.
Analysts suggest the bear market bottom may not be reached until late 2026 or later.

Bitcoin

Historical Patterns of Bitcoin's Decline

Crypto market expert Greeny recently highlighted Bitcoin's performance through technical analysis shared on X. He pointed out that Bitcoin has consistently exhibited peaks and troughs across major cycles over the last decade. For instance, from 2013 to 2015, it took about 410 days for Bitcoin to hit a low. The cycles between 2017 to 2018 and 2021 each lasted about 363 and 376 days, respectively. When averaged, these cycles show a duration of roughly 383 days, which is just over a year. With the current downturn already five months in since the October peak, Greeny believes that the decline is far from finished.

He also noted that past cycles experienced substantial crashes: in 2011, Bitcoin plummeted by 93% before finding a bottom, while the 2015 decline saw an 85% drop. In 2022, following the 2021 bull market rally, the cryptocurrency fell by 77%. Currently, Bitcoin is trading about 42% below its all-time high of $126,000, reinforcing the idea that significant losses may still be on the horizon. Although Greeny acknowledged that institutional demand could potentially soften the blow, he thinks the timeline of this bear market mirrors historical trends.

BTC Chart

According to his evaluation, Bitcoin has sequences of accumulation following each downturn. For example, in 2015, it spent approximately 15 months trading sideways before a new uptrend commenced. Similarly, Bitcoin displayed around 18 months of tumultuous trading following the declines in 2018 and 2022 before markets shifted direction.

BTCUSD Chart BTCUSD is currently trading at $70,591. Chart: TradingView

Looking Forward in Bitcoin's Market Cycle

Greeny predicts that the average macro bear market bottom generally occurs around 363 days post-cycle peak, suggesting a potential low could emerge late in 2026 or even later. He indicated that, although Bitcoin has started to decline in price, the broader downtrend still prevails.

The analyst cautioned traders anticipating a swift "V-recovery," as such rapid rebounds have never been part of Bitcoin's history. After Bitcoin hits its price floor, an accumulation phase typically lasts between 12 and 16 months before any significant trend shifts can be expected. Although the notable drop in February could slightly expedite this phase, Greeny estimates that a full trend reversal will be unlikely before 2027.

Image credit to Unsplash, chart sourced from TradingView