Is Bitcoin Setting Up for a Relief Rally? Analyzing the Charts

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has dropped nearly 2%, and it's down almost 3% from a peak reached yesterday. At first glance, the price movements may not seem encouraging.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's recent price dip of nearly 2% might not indicate overall negativity.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows potential signs of increasing buying pressure, needing further confirmation.
Long-term holders are demonstrating renewed confidence by accumulating BTC after a significant period of inactivity.
Key resistance and support levels are critical for determining future price movement—as Bitcoin's price navigates these points, it may set the stage for a relief rally.

However, there are notable changes happening beneath the surface, particularly in the on-chain data, which haven't been seen for nearly three months. These developments might not guarantee a rally as we approach 2026, but they could very well be the initial steps toward one.

A Shift in Momentum: Signs Starting to Emerge

Two critical signals have appeared at the same time. Although they are independent, their timing is significant.

The first signal is derived from the On-Balance Volume (OBV). This metric tracks buying and selling pressure based on volume. Between December 21 and December 26, while Bitcoin's price was on the rise, the OBV did not follow suit and showed declining highs. This creates a bearish divergence and explains why the price struggled to make gains (notably highlighted by the long wick on December 26), as there wasn’t sufficient volume behind the minor price increase.

Weak OBV Could Become Stronger: TradingView
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This week, OBV broke above the trend line that had previously connected those lower highs. This breakout suggests an increase in buying pressure. However, this signal remains unconfirmed until OBV reaches a higher high above 1.58 million. If that occurs, the Bitcoin price may finally respond—and that confirmation has yet to happen.

The second signal involves the Hodler net position change metric, which monitors wallets that have held Bitcoin for longer than 155 days. These holders are generally more stable participants in the market. On December 26, this metric turned positive for the first time since late September, with long-term holders adding 3,783.8 BTC. These individuals are not purchasing for quick profits; they invest based on conviction. This is the first indication of renewed confidence among these holders in nearly three months.

BTC HODLers Are Accumulating Again: Glassnode
A genuine relief rally will require momentum from both ends: OBV needs to maintain its upward trend, and Hodlers must continue their accumulation. Relying on one without the other will not suffice.

The Bitcoin Price Landscape: Charting the Path to Year-End or Early 2026

Bitcoin still faces hurdles, as price movements reveal the underlying story.

For almost two weeks, Bitcoin has attempted but failed to reclaim the $90,840 level. This price point has repeatedly rejected upward movement since December 12. As long as Bitcoin remains below this threshold, each upward bounce will likely feel fleeting.

Above $90,840, the first significant checkpoint for a potential relief rally is around $97,190. The BTC price fell below this marker on November 14.

If the rally picks up steam, subsequent resistance points are at $101,710 and $107,470.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView
Conversely, on the downside, a support level is established at $86,915, which has remained intact since December 19. If Bitcoin fails to maintain this support, it could drop to as low as $80,560. Low liquidity as the year ends escalates this risk. Currently, based on the positioning of long-term investors, there is a chance for Bitcoin to initiate a relief rally towards $90,840 and potentially beyond, provided the support at $86,910 holds.