Is the Bitcoin Downturn Far from Over? Analyst Discusses Potential for More Pain

Bitcoin

As the downturn in Bitcoin continues from its peak value, uncertainty looms over traders and investors. Many are left pondering whether the worst of this decline is behind us or still ahead. An analyst known as Jelle on X warns that the ongoing conversation may not fully capture a disturbing reality: bear markets for Bitcoin often prove to be more painful than most expect. According to him, current price data suggests a more alarming outlook for Bitcoin’s ongoing downturn.

Understanding Bitcoin’s Current Decline in Context

In a recent alert for investors, crypto analyst Jelle cautioned against underestimating the intensity and length of Bitcoin's bear markets. He pointed out in a post on X that Bitcoin's price has fallen by approximately 44% from its all-time high of $126,080. The local low recorded in February was about $63,000, equating to a 53% drop from the peak. While these figures seem drastic, they are relatively minor when comparing them to historical trends.

Data from previous bear markets indicates that Bitcoin's value has dropped significantly deeper during past downturns. For instance, after the 2017 rally, Bitcoin's value plummeted by around 84%. Similarly, the bear market following the 2021 cycle saw a decrease of about 77%.

The chart Jelle shared demonstrates that Bitcoin has continued to follow a consistent cyclical pattern since 2014, alternating between phases of accumulation and declines. On average, bull markets last about 150 to 152 weeks, while bear markets typically range from 52 to 58 weeks.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL On X

With this context in mind, the existing bear market is still shorter than previous cycles’ duration before reaching their lowest points. If we consider the recent all-time high achieved in October 2025, it may suggest that the current correction could last until around October 2026. As Jelle puts it, "Unfortunately, I think there is more pain ahead for BTC."

The Importance of the RSI Indicator

In another post, Jelle also evaluated the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin, a critical indicator that often hints at the nearing end of bear markets. He emphasized that in past downturns, the RSI dipped below the 37 level when the market approached its bottom. When this occurs, the RSI may continue to decrease further until Bitcoin reaches its final low.

BTC/USD now trading
BTC/USD Trading at $70,645. Chart: TradingView

Since the RSI first fell below this level during the current market cycle, Bitcoin has seen a decline of about 30%. While this drop is less severe than previous cycles, it does not stand out as a clear anomaly given the limited occurrences.

Jelle highlights a significant pattern that typically emerges toward the conclusion of bear markets. The lowest point usually happens when the RSI sets a higher low close to the level from the preceding bottom. This higher low can manifest alongside either a lower price low or a higher price low.

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL On X

When the price reaches a lower low but the RSI indicates a higher low, this creates a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. Such a signal has consistently marked the transition from bear market conditions into a new accumulation phase. Until this pattern becomes apparent, Jelle advises a patient approach to investing.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin has dropped 44% from its all-time high, with the current bear market still relatively mild historically.
The previous bear markets have seen much deeper declines, averaging around 77% or more.
The RSI indicator points to potential further declines until specific bullish patterns emerge.
Investors are encouraged to remain patient until clearer signs of a market reversal appear.