Is Tom Lee’s January Bitcoin Prediction on Track as $100,000 Approaches?

Bitcoin is making noticeable progress, having climbed above the $95,000 level. As of the latest updates, the price has risen about 3.8% for the day and approximately 6.5% over the last month, indicating strong momentum.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has recently surged past $95,000, indicating positive momentum.
A validated breakout from a cup-and-handle pattern targets the price range of $106,600.
Strong on-chain supply dynamics suggest reduced immediate selling pressure.
Retail wallet accumulation is showing positive signs, reducing previous selling headwinds.
Key resistance and support levels lie around $94,800 and $100,200, impacting potential price movements.

As the market gains traction and approaches significant resistance levels, Tom Lee’s prediction made in January for a new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin is beginning to appear more feasible and based on technical analysis. Nonetheless, there are still risks involved.

Bullish Breakout Signals Favorable Market Conditions

Bitcoin has recently confirmed a breakout from a cup-and-handle formation, successfully passing the resistance level near $94,800 on high volume. This strong trading volume is significant as it reflects genuine demand sustaining the breakout rather than merely thin liquidity driving the price higher. The calculated target from this bullish pattern is $106,600, marking it as the first major target on the upside.

To build confidence in predictions of further gains, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the key psychological level of $100,000 ($100,200 according to the charts).

Bitcoin Breakout: TradingView

Reaching this level could put Tom Lee's January prediction back on track.

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Tom Lee anticipates that Bitcoin will achieve a new ATH by the end of January 2026.

On-chain Analysis Supports the Bullish Case

The current on-chain supply data backs up the optimistic outlook. Most Bitcoin holders have purchased their assets at lower prices, which means they are currently in profit and less likely to sell quickly. This dynamic alleviates some selling pressure from the market.

Major Clusters Below Market Price: Glassnode

The combination of a confirmed bullish pattern and supportive on-chain supply indicates that a move higher is not merely a possibility, but rather reflects the current market positioning.

Accumulation by Whales Amid Retail Interest, But Watch for Leverage Risks

Recent holder behaviors indicate a favorable environment for price increases. Wallets containing between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have consistently added to their holdings since January 2, growing their total from approximately 2.18 million BTC to around 2.20 million BTC. This steady accumulation suggests confidence from major players.

However, retail activity has also changed. The early January rally for Bitcoin encountered resistance because retail investors were selling into strength.

📊 Generally, the crypto markets trend based on the actions of significant whale and shark investors, often moving against the smaller retail investors.

🟥 Whales selling, Retail buying (VERY BEARISH)
🟧 Whales selling, Retail unpredictable (BEARISH)
🟨 Whales & Retail…

This time, retail wallets have shifted to a net positive stance. Since January 5, retail ownership of Bitcoin (between 0.01 and 0.1 BTC) has seen a slight uptick, increasing from about 273,080 BTC to 273,250 BTC. Although the increase is minimal, its upward trend indicates that retail is no longer selling off their holdings during price rallies, removing a significant obstacle compared to earlier movements.

Retail And Whales Buy: Santiment

The main concern now lies in the derivatives market. Long positions heavily outweigh short positions; with around $2.69 billion in long trades versus about $320 million in short trades, this 9x discrepancy could create vulnerability if Bitcoin's price falls back below the breakout level of the cup.

Binance Liquidation Map: Coinglass

If Bitcoin drops below $94,800, it could trigger long liquidations, potentially driving the price down to the low $90,000s. Still, robust buying activity near support levels indicates that buyers might intervene before fully unwinding the leverage-driven sell-offs.

Key Price Levels for a New Bitcoin High

At this point, Bitcoin's structure is clear. Remaining above the $94,500 to $94,800 range—the breakout level—will maintain the bullish setup. The psychological level of $100,200 is just ahead, but the more critical technical target to watch is $106,600, stemming from the cup-and-handle projection. That is the first significant milestone.

If Bitcoin can surpass this threshold and absorb selling pressure above $112,000 (the nearest significant supply zone), it will enter an environment with limited historical resistance.

One Major Cluster: Glassnode

This would set the stage for potential acceleration beyond previous all-time highs, which near $126,200 now seems realistic rather than just a possibility.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

Bitcoin does not require a perfect market landscape to rise; it only needs to sustain its breakout and attract ongoing demand in the spot market. If that occurs, Tom Lee's prediction for a new ATH in January could transition from a bold assertion to a logical outcome based on the current market structure.

Currently, the most significant supply zone exists just above $112,000. If Bitcoin can maintain its momentum past $106,600 and later this resistance level, the path toward previous highs would become structurally clearer.

Conversely, a drop below $94,500 could weaken the bullish structure, while a decline beneath $91,600 might reintroduce selling pressures from bears.