ITC Founder Discusses Key Features of a Bitcoin Bear Market and Current BTC Status

The founder of Into The Cryptoverse shares insights on the characteristics that signify a typical Bitcoin bear market and explains why Bitcoin is currently experiencing one.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently down 45% from its all-time high and 20.5% in 2026.
Bear markets tend to have longer price increases followed by rapid declines.
Cowen emphasizes recognizing bear markets to avoid misleading optimism from price cheerleaders.
Historical data shows that February lows in Bitcoin prices might not represent the macro bottom.

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Bitcoin has continued to decline in 2026, now trading 45% below its all-time peak of $126,000 and down 20.5% over the year at approximately $69,500. Despite this downturn, many analysts argue that the market is merely undergoing a temporary pullback within a larger bull trend. However, Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse (ITC), holds a different view. He asserts that Bitcoin has entered a definitive bear market.

Analyzing Bear Market Behaviors

During a recent discussion, Cowen highlighted some surprising aspects of how bear markets operate. One key observation is that Bitcoin often experiences longer periods of price increases compared to downturns. In bear markets, Bitcoin tends to rise slowly over months before quickly plunging to a new low within just a couple of weeks. This rapid decline usually incites panic, while bullish investors continue to advocate buying during the dips. This pattern recurs until a new low is established, often followed by even lower prices.

For example, Cowen pointed to Bitcoin's low of $80,537 on November 21, 2025. After setting this low, Bitcoin rose for about 54 days, reaching a local high of $97,939 on January 14, 2026, which represented a 21.6% increase. However, in just 23 days following this peak, it fell 38.8% to a new low of $59,930 on February 6, 2026, erasing the gains from the previous 54 days and dropping an additional 25% below the November low. Cowen notes that Bitcoin spent more than twice as long rising as it did declining, yet it still ended the period at a lower price point.

The Contrast Between Optimists and Analysts

Cowen then discussed the difference between what he refers to as "price cheerleaders" and those who genuinely analyze market conditions. He suggests that price cheerleaders maintain a consistently bullish outlook, which can lead others to confuse their unwavering optimism with solid market analysis. While he acknowledges that being a long-term Bitcoin bull can be a prudent strategy—especially when buying during the depths of a bear market—he warns against ignoring the signs of a bear market. Trusting cheerleaders' unfounded optimism as financial insight can be detrimental.

To underscore his concerns, Cowen noted that Bitcoin currently holds the same valuation against gold as it did back in December 2017, where it reached the 14-ounce mark—one of the highs of that time. He remarked that individuals who purchased Bitcoin in 2017 and held onto it until 2026 have essentially broken even compared to gold, while those who sold at the end of post-halving years have seen significant profits.

Current Market Structure Indicating a Bear Trend

Cowen elaborated on why he believes the current Bitcoin market structure reflects a bear market. He indicated that Bitcoin set a low near $80,000 in November 2025, followed by a two-month rally before breaking down and finding support close to $60,000 in February 2026. Since reaching that $60,000 mark, Bitcoin has been climbing again, which Cowen interprets as a continuation of the same bear market pattern. He anticipates that this rally will likely conclude with another breakdown in the coming months, with late March to April typically being a weaker period for Bitcoin in midterm years.

He contrasted the current structure with the bullish market pattern seen from 2023 to 2025, where Bitcoin would gradually decline before sharply ascending to new highs—exactly the opposite of the current trend. Citing historical data, Cowen expressed that the $59,000 low in February may not represent the macro bottom for Bitcoin. He pointed out previous lows of $34,000 in February 2022, $5,921 in February 2018, and $400 in February 2014, all of which were not the macros bottoms, as Bitcoin fell even lower later in those cycles.

Bitcoin Historical February Lows | Benjamin Cowen

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed herein may reflect the author’s personal opinions and do not represent those of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not liable for any financial losses.