January Selling of Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be a Misstep, Price History Suggests

As Bitcoin hovers around $87,700 after a sharp decline from its October peak, selling in January could prove unwise based on historical trends. Historical data indicates January often sees gains, raising caution for those looking to sell.

Key Takeaways

January typically yields an average gain of +9.76% for Bitcoin, while February averages +14.3%.
Historical downturns in January were noted in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
Strong January performance is often followed by weakening in March.
Year-end selling contributes to lighter market resistance, potentially leading to January rallies.
Recent years showcased significant January gains, but selling too soon could be disadvantageous.

Selling Bitcoin (BTC) in January May Be Bad Idea, Price History Warns

Bitcoin's January Performance: What to Expect

After reaching between $120,000 and $125,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a decline to approximately $87,700. As the new year approaches, many might feel inclined to lock in their profits. However, the historical context raises important questions about this strategy.

When examining the average monthly returns, January stands out with an impressive average gain of +9.76% and a median of +9.54%. Following this, February continues the positive trend, with an average gain of +14.3%. However, the momentum often shifts in March, which can show a median loss of -2.19%. While January has its share of ups and downs, it's clear that strength typically exists at the start of the year, albeit inconsistently.

It’s crucial to note that January has not always been kind to Bitcoin. In prior years, January recorded significant losses: -32.1% in 2015, -28.1% in 2018, and -16.9% in 2022. This highlights that the warning is not simply about expecting January gains. Rather, it is about recognizing that selling in January may lead to unfavorable outcomes for those anticipating an effortless exit.

Looking at the year-end landscape adds further perspective. November often sees average returns of +36.6%, but December tends to have a slightly negative median of -2.68%. This indicates that many investors might exit at the end of the year amidst volatility, complicating January’s price dynamics.

The idea of “don’t sell into January” is less about superstition and more about market positioning. As year-end selling occurs for various practical reasons, once that selling pressure eases, prices often rebound quickly when faced with less resistance.

In the last few years, January has delivered remarkable returns, posting a +39.9% rise in 2023 and +29.6% in 2020. Even at the start of 2025, Bitcoin recorded a +9.54% gain in January before volatility set in.

While there is no certainty of a rally, if Bitcoin enters January already below its 2025 peak and under the psychologically significant $90,000 mark, history suggests that the risk may lie more in selling late rather than selling early.