Key Bitcoin Price Thresholds to Monitor Ahead of the 2025 FOMC Meeting

Bitcoin's price struggled once again to surpass the resistance level at $94,000 on Tuesday, as market volatility increased ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision scheduled for Wednesday.

Key Takeaways

Current projections indicate there is a 96% chance of a 25 basis points reduction on Wednesday, according to Polymarket.
If critical support levels are breached, the BTC price might drop to as low as $84,000.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Key Bitcoin Price Thresholds to Monitor Ahead of the 2025 FOMC Meeting

High Probability of a Rate Cut

The final US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year began on Tuesday, with the decision regarding interest rates expected on Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. Market analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 0.25%, marking this reduction as the third of the year.

Related: Bitcoin FOMO Resurfaces at $94K, but the Fed Could Disrupt the Rally

Polymarket indicates a 96.8% likelihood that the interest rates will be lowered to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, with only a 3% chance that rates will stay the same.

Interest Rate Expectations. Source: Polymarket

Yet, any potential for Bitcoin's price to rise due to a rate cut might already be reflected in the current market prices. Bitcoin was retreating toward $92,000 on Wednesday amid concerns that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks following the meeting could destabilize the market again.

“Yesterday’s weak jobs data slightly dampened rate-cut expectations and unsettled traditional finance markets; all attention is now on the Fed and wage data,” noted Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC in a Wednesday update on X, adding, "Therefore, the market will closely scrutinize Powell’s language during the FOMC press conference for any shifts in tone."

Presently, the market is anticipating a 25bps cut, but significant movements are expected in response to Jerome Powell's speech.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Monitor

Bitcoin needs to convert the $93,300 level into support to aim for higher targets above $100,000. For this objective to materialize, BTC/USD must first reclaim its position above the 50-day simple moving average (represented by the yellow line) situated at $98,000.

The $100,000 psychological barrier is crucial, as repeated rejections from this threshold could trigger another sell-off, similar to what occurred in February. The major supply zone extends up to $108,000, where the 200-day SMA can be found. This trendline was lost on November 3 for the first time since April 22.

For Bitcoin to have a better chance of reaching $110,000, it must also overcome this critical barrier.

Bitcoin daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Conversely, bears will attempt to maintain the $94,000 resistance level established at the start of the year, which raises the risk of new lows below $90,000. A significant area of interest lies between $90,000 and the previous lows around $87,500, reached recently on Sunday. If these levels are breached, the next potential move could be a retest of the November 21 lows at $84,000, completely erasing the gains made in the last three weeks.

Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC has pointed out the possibility of a move toward $98,000, but warned that a drop below $91,000 could be disastrous for the market. The Bitcoin liquidation heatmap reveals a large liquidity cluster between $93,000 and $96,000. Below the current price level, the area to watch is $91,500.

Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

This points to price levels that could be influenced by the outcome of today's FOMC meeting.