Macro Analyst Luke Gromen Becomes Bearish on Bitcoin, Predicts Potential Drop to $40K

Global macro analyst Luke Gromen has recently shifted his outlook on Bitcoin, expressing a near-term bearish perspective that suggests a potential decline to the $40,000 range in 2026. He notes that the leading cryptocurrency appears vulnerable amid changing macroeconomic conditions and shifts in investor sentiment.

Key Takeaways

Luke Gromen has shifted to a bearish stance on Bitcoin, predicting it could drop to around $40,000 in 2026.
He identifies macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment changes as vulnerabilities for Bitcoin.
Gromen emphasizes that gold and certain equities currently outperform Bitcoin in expressing the debasement thesis.
There is a growing concern regarding quantum risk and macroeconomic uncertainty affecting Bitcoin sentiment.
Many Bitcoin analysts dispute Gromen’s bearish outlook, seeing opportunities rather than weaknesses.
Market data indicates that contrary to alarming signals, Bitcoin ETFs have begun to see minor inflows again, suggesting complex market dynamics.

Macro analyst Luke Gromen turns bearish on Bitcoin, sees possible slide to $40K

In a recent appearance on the RiskReversal podcast, Gromen maintained his belief in the fundamental debasement trade thesis regarding fiat currencies and hard assets. However, he pointed out that gold and select equities are currently outperforming Bitcoin in demonstrating that thesis, saying, "Essentially, everything except gold and the dollar may face challenges."

The debasement trade thesis posits that governments will subtly decrease the actual value of their debts through inflation and currency depreciation. As a result, investors tend to move away from fiat currencies, opting instead for limited assets like gold, commodities, and Bitcoin, which are expected to maintain their purchasing power over time.

Gromen Expresses Caution on Bitcoin

Gromen highlighted Bitcoin’s inability to reach new highs against gold, the breakdown of important moving averages, and growing concerns around quantum risk as indicators that the risk-reward outlook for Bitcoin has worsened in the near term.

Cryptocurrencies, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Investments, Fiat Money, Inflation, Quantum Computing, Bitcoin ETF Bitcoin dropped below $90,000 over the weekend. Source: CoinMarketCap

For his followers, this change represents a notable shift. In recent years, Gromen has often viewed Bitcoin as complementary to gold in the context of the debasement trade, supporting a broader view of fiscal issues, increasing debt-to-GDP ratios, and the necessity to inflate real liabilities. In this interview, however, he consistently positioned Bitcoin as an asset that could be reduced tactically, despite holding a long-term optimistic view about the debasement of fiat currencies.

Related: Michael Saylor hints at next Bitcoin buy as BTC falls below $88K

Concerns Over Macro Conditions and Quantum Risks

Gromen's remarks occur at a time when concerns regarding quantum risk, macroeconomic instability, and valuation fears are impacting Bitcoin’s market sentiment. Analysts are voicing increased skepticism over whether Bitcoin can maintain its gains following the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly as worries about the AI sector and weak U.S. labor and consumer metrics dampen the market.

Simultaneously, discussions about quantum computing have transitioned from theoretical notions to perceived medium-term risks, even if most cryptographers believe that tangible threats to Bitcoin's cryptography are still far off.

Related: Bitcoin price down 20%, stablecoin market cap down $2B: November in charts

Bitcoin Analysts Counter Gromen’s Bearish Outlook

Despite Gromen's bearish sentiment, many Bitcoin analysts remain unconvinced, rejecting his rationale as poorly conceived. They argue that referencing broken moving averages and Bitcoin's underperformance compared to gold could merely indicate a chance to buy at lower prices.

Source: Sina BI Report

Onchain analyst Checkmate noted that much of Gromen’s evidence seemed drawn from social media narratives rather than concrete data. Meanwhile, Troy Cross, a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, characterized Gromen’s claims as more of a trade based on perceived quantum risks, rather than reflecting an actual cryptographic threat.

Related: Why Vitalik believes quantum computing could break Ethereum’s cryptography sooner than expected

Market Flows, Debasement, and Long-Term Perspectives

Market trends portray a more complex scenario than mere pessimism. Following a significant outflow in November, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a return to modest net inflows in December.

The overarching debasement thesis championed by Gromen continues to support many long-term bullish positions for Bitcoin along with gold. His recent comments may represent less of a rejection of Bitcoin’s role in the debasement narrative and more of a reminder that even loyal supporters of Bitcoin are ready to tactically reassess their positions when faced with unfavorable narratives and technical indicators.