Metaplanet Faces Challenges: Bitcoin Must Exceed $108,000 by December 18 to Avert Crisis

Metaplanet, a major public Bitcoin treasury company in Japan, is at a critical point as Bitcoin’s price has dipped significantly. This article examines Metaplanet's struggles with Bitcoin valuations and details key upcoming dates that could impact its future.

Key Takeaways

Metaplanet holds over 30,000 BTC valued at approximately $2.7 billion, with an average cost of $108,000 per Bitcoin.
The company is facing substantial losses due to Bitcoin's current trading price of around $87,700.
Upcoming decisions by the Bank of Japan on interest rates and a shareholder vote on fundraising could greatly impact Metaplanet.
Bitcoin must exceed $108,000 for Metaplanet to break even; if it falls below $70,000, the company may be forced to sell assets.

Metaplanet

Metaplanet's Bitcoin Holdings Decline

As of November 26, Metaplanet ranks as the fourth largest public Bitcoin treasury company, holding slightly over 30,000 BTC worth approximately $2.7 billion. The average purchase price for these coins sits at around $108,000 each. Currently, Bitcoin trades at about $87,700, representing almost a 17% loss for the company.

Metaplanet
Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

The firm is in a difficult position with its stocks down 81% from June highs, dropping from ¥1,935 to a mere ¥366 per share on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. To enhance its Bitcoin holdings, Metaplanet recently borrowed an extra $130 million, a move reported on November 21 under a $500 million credit line established in late October. This loan features a floating interest rate that renews daily and is secured by the company's Bitcoin reserves.

However, market analyst Shanaka Anslem has expressed concerns on social media regarding how these financial strategies may affect Metaplanet’s short-term viability.

Upcoming Critical Dates

Anslem emphasizes two significant dates that observers should watch closely: December 18, when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its interest rate decisions, and December 22, when Metaplanet shareholders will vote on a proposed $135 million fundraising effort.

The outcomes of these events are closely linked. If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates and strengthens the yen, it could lead to falling Bitcoin prices, putting Metaplanet’s stock premium and the fundraising vote at risk. In contrast, if the central bank maintains its current policies—keeping the yen weak but stabilizing Bitcoin prices—the fundraising initiative may succeed, allowing the company to continue operating.

This situation holds broader implications, as Japan currently does not have a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), positioning Metaplanet as the sole opportunity for Japanese investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through the stock market. This exclusivity contributed to a staggering 4,000% increase in the firm's stock value in 2024; however, following Bitcoin's recent 30% drop, the stock has since fallen 81%. This decline has raised alarm bells among investors, prompting concerns of a potential new bear market.

The risks are heightened by leverage; for Metaplanet to break even, Bitcoin must touch $108,000. Furthermore, for its investment strategy to work efficiently, Bitcoin needs to exceed $130,000. A decline below $70,000 could force Metaplanet to sell off assets to meet collateral requirements.

As stated by Anslem, "For now, Metaplanet stands as neither triumph nor failure but as the most consequential experiment in corporate Bitcoin allocation currently in progress… The hotel company that has invested heavily in Bitcoin is approaching its pivotal moment, and the world should take note."

Metaplanet
The daily chart shows BTC's price stabilizing above the $85,000 range over the past 24 hours. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com