Metaplanet Halts BTC Purchases Despite 30% Price Drop

As the future of Bitcoin treasuries remains uncertain ahead of the MSCI index exclusion review, a significant player, Metaplanet, is notably inactive in the market.

Key Takeaways

Metaplanet, the fourth-largest Bitcoin treasury firm in Japan, has not purchased any BTC since late September.
The firm's mNAV (market to net asset value) has fallen below 1x, restricting its ability to raise capital for new acquisitions.
Metaplanet is experiencing unrealized losses of over half a billion dollars on its BTC holdings.
The company has ambitious plans for its BTC holdings, aiming to scale to 100,000 BTC by 2026 and 210,000 BTC by 2027.
The firm’s stock has seen fluctuations, up 28% Year-on-Year, while Bitcoin's price has dropped by 11%.

Analyzing Metaplanet's Pause on BTC Purchases

The last time Metaplanet made a BTC purchase was on September 29, when it acquired 2,744 BTC, increasing its total holdings to 30,823 BTC at a price of $112,000. Shortly thereafter, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of over $126,000, but a market downturn has since slashed its value by around 30%, bringing it down to approximately $89,000 at the time of writing.

Typically, one would expect major BTC treasury firms to buy during such price dips, but Metaplanet's current strategy appears more cautious. The firm’s peers in the industry are likely to seize the opportunity, yet Metaplanet’s lack of activity raises questions about its market strategy.

Understanding the mNAV Situation

One reason for Metaplanet’s reluctance to purchase more Bitcoin is its mNAV, which tracks the relationship between enterprise value and BTC holdings. Recently, this figure fell below 1x, which limits the firm’s capacity to raise capital for additional purchases.

In October, Metaplanet took proactive steps by announcing a $500 million credit line for a stock buyback program that aims to enhance its mNAV. By December 5, it secured $50 million towards this credit line, intending to use the funds for stock buybacks and potential BTC purchases.

As of now, Metaplanet's mNAV sits at 1.01x, a rebound from its previously recorded low of 0.93x. However, the implications of the ongoing MSCI index exclusion review, which concerns not only Strategy but also Metaplanet—whose inclusion occurred in February—could lead to further market instability.

Metaplanet's BTC Position and Future Plans

Currently, Metaplanet's BTC holdings are facing over half a billion dollars in unrealized losses. Despite this, the firm has $304 million in outstanding debt but possesses nine times its debt obligations in BTC assets at the current price.

Whether Metaplanet will adhere to its long-standing belief of “never selling BTC” is uncertain, especially since Strategy has hinted at potential BTC sales if its mNAV drops below 1x. Metaplanet’s BTC purchasing journey began in April 2024 with just 97 coins, and it has rapidly expanded to over 30,000 BTC, which is valued at $2.75 billion—a target it aimed for in 2025.

Looking forward, Metaplanet has ambitious growth targets of scaling its holdings to 100,000 BTC by 2026 and aiming for 210,000 BTC by 2027, although it remains to be seen if it can maintain this trajectory.

In terms of financial performance, the company’s stock (MTPLF) has increased 28% year-on-year, contrasting with Bitcoin's 11% decline at the time of this report. However, MTPLF experienced a substantial drop of 79% from $13 to $2.43 in the second half of 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin losing 16% of its value, trading at $89,000.

Conclusion

Metaplanet's decision to halt BTC purchases during a significant market downturn raises eyebrows. As the firm navigates its mNAV challenges and potential sell-off risks related to the MSCI index, its future strategies and adherence to BTC accumulation promises to keep the cryptocurrency community watching closely.