Morning Crypto Update: XRP Faces $2 Stablecoin Risk, Coinbase Identifies Four Indicators of Market Reset, and '$10,000 Zcash' Advocate Clears Up Misconceptions About ZEC Developers

As we kick off Friday, the cryptocurrency market is exhibiting tighter price ranges and fewer liquidation incidents. This comes in the wake of XRP showcasing a complex chart pattern, Coinbase Institutional providing a four-part theory for a market reset, and a prominent member of Solana's community dispelling rumors surrounding the Zcash crash.

Key Takeaways

XRP is experiencing conflicting signals; a "golden cross" on the daily chart versus a "death cross" on the weekly chart.
Coinbase highlights four reasons suggesting that the crypto market is entering a new phase following the December sell-off.
Fears surrounding Zcash were alleviated when a notable figure clarified the future of its development team, reversing negative sentiment about a protocol abandonment.

Conflicting Signals in XRP's Price Action

XRP is currently caught in a unique situation where it exhibits dual signals— on the daily chart, bulls are eyeing a potential "golden cross," while bears are flagging a "death cross" on the weekly chart.

These signals originate from the interaction between the 23-day (or week) and 50-day (or week) moving averages visible on TradingView, which can initiate significant price trends targeting the 200 MA as a price magnet.

XRP/USD Chart by TradingView

From a daily perspective, XRP's price appears to be moving towards $2.34, which has already served as a bit of resistance earlier this week. This target aligns with the 200-day moving average. In contrast, the weekly chart suggests a "death cross," predicting a possible decline of 33% to about $1.39 per XRP. Such a drop would negate the recovery seen in December and January, consistent with historical trends.

This crossover conflict complicates market dynamics, creating a divide among traders. Derivative positions are scattered, leading to a drop in open interest as traders remain undecided on future movements.

Consequently, the $2.00 mark seems more like a liquidity compression zone rather than a definitive directional cue. If neither of the longer-term targets breaks out clearly, the current range may be viewed as a stagnant zone, making XRP resemble a stablecoin.

Coinbase's Insights Indicate Market Reset

In its January report, Coinbase outlines four reasons that suggest the cryptocurrency market may be entering a fresh phase following last month's severe sell-off. This shift coincides with the introductions of ETFs, forced deleveraging, and returning capital to post-holiday markets.

Net inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have resumed, even if they have not yet reached November's peak levels. These inflows indicate that institutional investors are viewing these products as viable investment options rather than mere short-term trends.

Systemic leverage in the crypto markets has reached its lowest since early 2024, dropping to just 3% of the total market cap. This figure is derived from the comparison of perpetual and options open interest against the float-adjusted market cap, excluding stables. This dramatic drop reflects a stark decline from peaks over 9% seen in mid-2025.

Market Data from Coinbase

Trading volumes are finally reflecting a balanced market. Coinbase and other exchanges are observing a resurgence in bid/offers, particularly around BTC and ETH pairs. The days of panic selling and liquidation are behind us, indicating that bids are genuine and short-selling is not the only option.

Recent metrics show stabilization in the market, with a notable shift in trader behaviors. By late December, most traders were bearish. Now, the focus has shifted back to positive bets, a change that often signifies growing confidence.

In summary, the combination of stable ETF flows, reset leverage, balanced trading books, and options with more upside potential indicates that we are perhaps entering a "cautious re-risking phase" in the cryptocurrency market.

Zcash Developer Situation Clarified

This week, Zcash (ZEC) garnered attention amid rumors of a developer resignation tied to governance disputes. CEO Josh Swihart confirmed that the core issue was indeed issues around corporate governance, but emphasized that the protocol remains unaffected.

Despite reassurances, the market reacted negatively, with ZEC's price falling over 10% due to fears surrounding potential protocol abandonment and ecosystem instability.

In response, Mert Mumtaz—CEO of Helius and a distinguished contributor to Solana—debunked these fears in a viral thread on Crypto Twitter. He stated that the team has transitioned from a politically charged structure to a more agile, tech-focused lab, actually increasing team size, capital, and execution speed.

The implications of whether $10,000 is a target or a mantra do not overshadow the fact that the developer team is evolving rather than diminishing. This revelation could be significant enough to maintain ZEC's status in the conversation surrounding long-term investments.

The price response has been somewhat positive: ZEC has rebounded from levels below $420 and is currently holding around $435, albeit still short of critical resistance at $473. If the new structure proves stable, this could simply be a temporary shakeout, especially with current capital favoring privacy tokens.

This week’s market movements may not reveal the entire picture. Beneath the apparent stability, the cryptocurrency landscape is changing after a turbulent phase characterized by excessive leverage. Whether this leads to growth in the first quarter will depend on market flows and investor conviction.

Coinbase's four indications for recovery do not ensure a market rally but do imply that institutional investors are not fleeing the market. With retail investors sitting on the sidelines and altcoin narratives weakening, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP may capture attention in the upcoming sessions.

Key Levels to Monitor: As the weekend approaches, the market will be tested to see if this structural recovery has real strength or if it merely represents a brief respite before potential turmoil resumes.