Most Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators Point to a New Bear Market Cycle

Bitcoin is currently trading near $92,000 following a slight rebound this week, yet an increasing array of on-chain indicators indicates that the market may have already entered a bearish phase.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's recent price stabilization at $92,000 is at odds with on-chain metrics indicating a bearish cycle.
Tom Lee has revised his expectations for Bitcoin, now predicting it will remain above $100,000 by year's end.
Arthur Hayes remains bullish, projecting a return to $200,000–$250,000, but current market structures do not support these views.
Indicators such as CryptoQuant's Bull Score Signals have shown a shift from bullish signs to bearish ones since mid-2025.
Market momentum metrics reveal weakness and lack confidence in the recent price uptick.

As Bitcoin hovers around $92,000, recent on-chain indicators suggest a shift towards bearish conditions in the market. Despite optimistic forecasts from industry figures like Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes, data reveals growing challenges that may hinder Bitcoin's ability to sustain upward momentum.

Contrasting Bullish Predictions and Market Data

Tom Lee has softened his previous target of $250,000 for Bitcoin and is now suggesting that it could stay above $100,000 through the end of the year. Conversely, Arthur Hayes maintains a bullish perspective, interpreting the recent dip into the low $80,000s as a bottom, predicting a possible rise to $200,000 or more. However, the current market conditions are not aligned with such optimistic outcomes.

One indicator, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Signals composite, illustrates this discrepancy. During previous bullish periods, notably late 2023 and early 2025, the model recorded numerous positive indicators across valuation, demand, network activity, and stablecoin liquidity. Since mid-2025, however, these indicators have consistently turned negative. The MVRV Z-score indicates a market that is overheated, while both network activity and stablecoin purchasing power have weakened significantly.

This scenario appears more similar to the initial stages of the downturn in 2022 than it does to an ongoing rally in 2025. Additionally, the Bull Score Index provides a more detailed picture. Bitcoin spent the first half of 2025 in a bullish zone with scores above 60, but by late August, the score began to decline sharply, dropping below 40 by October and remaining stagnant through November, despite short-term price fluctuations. Currently, the reading is stuck in the 20-30 range, firmly in the bearish zone. The recent rebound from last week’s lows hasn't changed the underlying cycle signals.

Another indicator, the Bull Score mapped to price, supports this perspective. Earlier this year, the model displayed green "extra bullish" signals, but it has since shifted to red "bearish" and "extra bearish" readings throughout September, October, and November. Even the latest recovery to $92,000 is categorized as a rally in the bearish zone, mirroring distribution patterns seen during previous market peaks.

Strengthening Momentum Metrics Bolster the Bearish Argument for Bitcoin

Current market momentum indicators reinforce this shift in cycles. The RSI is neutral at around 50, indicating a lack of strong conviction behind this week’s price increase. The Chaikin Money Flow has remained negative for most of the month, demonstrating continued capital outflows even as prices recover. Although the MACD turned positive recently, its histogram indicates declining momentum, suggesting that the current movement lacks endurance.

Further caution is warranted by additional signals. Short-term RSI surges above 70 in recent days have proven unsustainable, with sellers remaining active during each breakout attempt. The Chaikin Money Flow's inability to reach positive territory points toward ongoing distribution rather than accumulation. Meanwhile, the MACD's fragile crossover resembles conditions often seen during previous bear market rallies, where momentum briefly improves before declining again.

Together, these on-chain, liquidity, and momentum indicators point to a structural transition into a bearish cycle. If a large holder retains their 650K BTC during this cycle (or sells only a fraction), we might avoid another drastic drawdown like the 65% decline from 2022. Currently, we are about 25% away from the all-time high, and if a bear cycle emerges, it may present a less intense downturn characterized by a broad sideways trend.

As Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes maintain their positive outlook on Bitcoin, existing market data suggests otherwise. If stablecoin liquidity, network activity, and demand growth do not show a clear and strong recovery, Bitcoin's recent bounce is more likely to be a fleeting reprieve rather than the start of a significant upward trend.