MSCI's Proposed Crypto Treasury Rules May Lead to $15 Billion of Forced Selling

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) is contemplating a significant change that could impact companies holding substantial crypto assets. If implemented, this change could force crypto treasury companies to sell up to $15 billion in cryptocurrency, further intensifying selling pressure in an already declining market.

Key Takeaways

MSCI's potential exclusion of crypto treasury companies from its indexes could trigger forced selling of up to $15 billion.
BitcoinForCorporations estimates outflows based on a list of 39 companies with a total market cap of $113 billion.
JPMorgan analysis indicates that a major Bitcoin treasury firm could face $2.8 billion in outflows upon exclusion from MSCI.
The MSCI has invoked criticism for suggesting that balance sheet metrics should dictate company classification.
The final decision regarding these proposals is set to be announced on January 15, with potential implementation in February 2026.

MSCI’s crypto treasury rules could spur $15B of forced selling

Potential Impact of MSCI's Proposal

Crypto treasury companies might be compelled to liquidate as much as $15 billion in cryptocurrency if MSCI goes ahead with plans to exclude these firms from its indexes. According to the BitcoinForCorporations group, analyses predict that the outflows could range between $10 billion and $15 billion based on their findings of 39 companies with a combined float-adjusted market capitalization of $113 billion.

Furthermore, research by JPMorgan suggests that if Michael Saylor’s treasure strategy were excluded from MSCI, it could lead to $2.8 billion in outflows, as this strategy makes up approximately 74.5% of the total affected market cap. Overall, analysts project that the total outflows for all impacted firms could reach $11.6 billion, exerting even more selling pressure on crypto markets that have already been declining for nearly three months. As of now, the BitcoinForCorporations petition has collected 1,268 signatures.

Concerns Over MSCI’s Criteria

In October, MSCI announced it was gathering feedback from the investment community about potentially excluding companies whose balance sheets are heavily cryptocurrency-focused. Since MSCI's indexes play a crucial role in determining which companies passive investment funds must include, the decision to include or exclude certain firms is significant for their capital accessibility.

BitcoinForCorporations argues that using a balance sheet metric to judge companies is inadequate and unfair. The organization has urged MSCI to reevaluate its proposal to better align classifications with firms' actual business models, financial performance, and operational characteristics. MSCI is expected to release its final conclusions by January 15, with potential changes set to take effect during the February 2026 Index Review.

Increasing Pushback Against the Proposal

In the wake of MSCI's proposal, major industry figures have started to express their dissent. On December 5, the Nasdaq-listed firm Strive encouraged MSCI to allow the market to decide whether Bitcoin-holding companies should remain part of passive investments. Shortly thereafter, Strategy articulated in a letter that the proposed rules would unfairly position MSCI against cryptocurrency as an asset class, which contradicts the index's aim of neutrality.

By taking these positions, various stakeholders in the cryptocurrency space are highlighting the potential negative effects of the MSCI's planned changes and advocating for a more balanced approach in assessing companies that invest in cryptocurrencies.