Nearly Half of Bitcoin Supply Now at a Loss, Approaching 2022 Bear Market Levels

Summary: As of early 2025, about 46% of Bitcoin, equivalent to approximately 9.09 million coins, is currently at a loss. This situation mirrors conditions experienced during the 2022 bear market. The current market dynamics suggest a significant number of holders are feeling the pressure to make decisions regarding their investments.

Key Takeaways

46% of Bitcoin Supply: Approximately 9.09 million BTC coins are currently at a loss.
Historical Context: This figure is the second-highest since 2020, closely resembling loss levels seen during the 2022 bear market.
Market Pressure: Many investors face difficult choices, either holding through losses or selling to cut their losses.
Current Price Level: Despite the high number of coins at a loss, Bitcoin’s price is still significantly higher than during the 2022 downturn.

Around 46% of Bitcoin, which translates to about 9.09 million coins, are currently underwater as we enter early 2025. This marks a return to loss levels similar to those seen during the bear market of 2022 following the unraveling of the 2024-2025 price rally. According to data from CryptoQuant, this represents the second-highest loss concentration since reporting began in July 2020, just shy of the peak observed during the previous bear market.

The BTC Supply in Profit/Loss chart from CryptoQuant indicates that coins held at a loss are recorded as negative figures, with current losses reaching negative 9.09 million coins. This is approaching the peak loss concentration observed in mid-2022 when nearly 10 million coins were also at a loss due to market declines triggered by the Luna and FTX incidents.

Currently, the total circulating supply of Bitcoin is approximately 19.8 million coins. This means that nearly half of all Bitcoin transactions on the blockchain are now at prices lower than their most recent transaction values.

One major difference between the current scenario and the 2022 bear market is the absolute price of Bitcoin, which remains considerably higher now compared to the prices during the previous downturn. The current loss concentration primarily reflects the investments made by holders who entered the market during the recent rally, and many are now facing losses.

Market analysts note that high levels of supply in loss can create unique market dynamics. Individuals holding coins that are currently at a loss may feel compelled to either sell their positions or hold on through market corrections. Typically, those who bought at higher prices relative to present market values show less confidence in a long-term recovery.

The 2022 bear market serves as an important historical benchmark. Loss concentrations peaked at around 10 million coins during that time, before seeing a gradual decline as the market began to stabilize and new investments reintroduced profit opportunities.

The current reading of 9.09 million coins may signify a peak, but much depends on whether prices stabilize at their present levels or continue to decline, according to analysts monitoring these metrics.

Nearly half of BTC supply sits at a loss as 9.09m coins go underwater.