New Bitcoin Investors Have Experienced Losses for Two Consecutive Months, Data Indicates

Bitcoin's recent buyers have been struggling since November 2024, with data from on-chain analytics revealing that they have faced a continuous period of unrealized losses for the past eight weeks.

Key Takeaways

New Bitcoin investors have seen losses for two consecutive months, requiring prices to exceed $98,000 to regain profitability.
The STH-NUPL metric indicates that short-term holders are currently at a disadvantage.
Significant resistance is noted around the $98,000 level, with implications for market momentum.
Broader macroeconomic factors, including trade tensions and monetary policy expectations, continue to impact the crypto market.

According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, short-term holders (those who bought Bitcoin within the last 155 days) must see the price rise above $98,000 to return to profitability.

Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss

The STH-NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric, which tracks the financial position of this group, has consistently shown negative results throughout this timeframe. Glassnode found that the average entry price for these recent investors stands at $98,300, marking an essential threshold for market sentiment. The firm commented, “Historically, reclaiming and sustaining above the Short-Term Holder cost basis has indicated a shift from correction phases to more sustainable uptrends.”

Bitcoin Losses

Technical Analysis Highlights Resistance Levels

The $98,000 mark holds further importance beyond just holder profitability. According to analysis from LongCryptoClub, significant demand for options has emerged around the January 30th strikes at $98,000 and $100,000. This may create the potential for increased upward momentum if those levels are surpassed.

Market makers with short positions on these options would need to purchase underlying Bitcoin to maintain a delta-neutral hedge as prices approach these strikes, possibly boosting any breakout.

Last week, Bitcoin momentarily tested a resistance level near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point, established between November's local low and the all-time high.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The price briefly hit approximately $97,000 before sharply retracting to $91,800 on Monday morning, resulting in about $233 million in long liquidations across derivative markets. Despite the volatility, the technical structure remains solid, showing higher highs and higher lows on daily charts.

Hyblock Capital’s data indicated that around $250 million in net long positions were filled near $92,000 during Monday's dip, implying that institutional buyers viewed the price decline as an accumulation opportunity rather than selling off.

Hyblock

This pattern of accumulation was confirmed by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, who stated, “Institutional demand for Bitcoin continues to be robust.”

As the market stabilized around $92,000 during Tuesday's Asian trading session after the initial drop, signs of resilience in institutional interest were evident.

Ongoing Challenges in a Volatile Macro Environment

The broader cryptocurrency market continues to lag behind traditional risk assets amid significant headwinds. Recent tariff threats from President Trump aimed at eight European nations over Greenland negotiations have driven markets into a defensive posture, notably impacting crypto more severely.

Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto exchange VALR, noted in an interview with Cryptonews, “While concerns about the US-EU trade war have chiefly affected market sentiment, other risk assets like the KOSPI are remaining steady, which highlights that crypto-specific weakness is still apparent.”

Additionally, expectations around monetary policy compound these challenges. Using CME FedWatch tools, we see that markets are not anticipating the first interest rate cut until June 2026, implying tight liquidity will remain through the first half of the year. Ehsani elaborated, “Consequently, monetary policy will remain restrictive, and the influx of new liquidity essential for a bullish cycle isn’t expected soon.”

Even with attempts to stabilize near $100,000, Bitcoin remains susceptible to macroeconomic shocks. The Monday selloff occurred under low weekend liquidity conditions, with elevated leverage exacerbating the drop.

The total crypto market capitalization decreased nearly 3%, with notable altcoins like SOL, DOGE, SUI, and XRP losing over 5%, as capital shifted toward established safe havens like gold.

Long-term holder distribution has significantly slowed, with realized profits decreasing to approximately 12,800 BTC per week, according to Bitfinex—far below peaks seen in earlier cycles.

However, data from CryptoQuant's Head of Research, Julio Moreno, indicated that Bitcoin holders have started realizing losses over the last month, marking the first substantial loss-taking phase since October 2023.

Net Realized Profit/Loss Chart

Bitfinex analysts pointed out that “for a more sustained rally to materialize, market structure needs to shift to a regime where maturing supply exceeds long-term holder expenditures.”

On Tuesday, Bitcoin traded steadily near $92,000, despite the wider macroeconomic turbulence, with traders interpreting the recent volatility as a leverage adjustment rather than a fundamental trend reversal. The market is gearing up for a crucial test in the coming sessions as traders await further clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and a resolution to escalating trade tensions that have kept institutional capital on alert throughout January.