New Bitcoin Whales Transforming BTC’s Market Landscape: Insights

New Bitcoin whales transforming BTC’s market landscape

Summary:
Recent data reveals that “new whales,” or freshly significant Bitcoin holders, now account for nearly 50% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization, showcasing a key shift in the network's financial structure. Additionally, the Short-Term Holder (STH) supply has surged by around 100,000 BTC within 30 days, achieving a record high indicative of escalating demand.

Key Takeaways:

Nearly half of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization is associated with “new whales,” indicating a fundamental change in the network's cost structure.
The Short-Term Holder (STH) supply has increased by about 100,000 BTC over the last month, hitting an all-time high that reflects heightened demand.

New Whales Influencing Bitcoin’s Cost Structure

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that addresses identified as new whales now represent close to 50% of Bitcoin's realized capitalization. The realized cap measures BTC's value based on the last price at which each coin was transacted, highlighting where capital has flowed into the network, rather than simply identifying who holds the most coins.

Bitcoin realized cap held by New Whales
Source: CryptoQuant

Before 2025, new whales contributed a maximum of 22% to Bitcoin's realized cap. Historically, previous bull markets were driven by established whales who accumulated coins at lower prices and gradually sold them off. In contrast, the current trend shows new whales investing large sums at much higher price points. Importantly, even during market pullbacks, the share of the realized cap held by new whales has grown, indicating a reassessment of Bitcoin's overall cost basis rather than merely speculative trading behavior.

Surge in Short-Term Demand as Whales Take Advantage

The net position change of short-term holders (over a 30-day period) has reached a remarkable peak of nearly 100,000 BTC. This metric illustrates the net change in supply connected to coins that are less than 155 days old, indicating robust accumulation by new investors.

Bitcoin short-term holder net position change
Source: CryptoQuant

These increases typically occur during phases of high momentum when demand surpasses available supply, even amidst elevated volatility. Additionally, the latest inflow data from Binance suggests that coins older than 155 days have mostly remained idle, confirming that long-term holders have not sold their assets. Instead, the selling pressure predominantly came from short-term holders responding to price declines.

Significantly, about 37% of BTC sent to Binance originated from large whale wallets (holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC), which implies that substantial capital was actively seeking liquidity during this transition.

Additionally, data from Hyblock illustrates this trend: the cumulative volume delta (CVD) shows that whale wallets (with investments ranging from $100,000 to $10 million) recorded a positive delta of $135 million this week. In contrast, retail traders (holding $0-$10,000) and mid-sized traders (with $10,000-$100,000) faced negative deltas of $84 million and $172 million respectively. This effectively suggests that larger investors absorbed the selling pressure, while smaller traders reduced their market exposure.

Bitcoin price and cumulative volume delta for different wallet sizes
Source: Hyblock Capital

Related Insight: Fidelity's macro lead has projected a potential $65,000 bottom for Bitcoin by 2026, potentially marking the conclusion of the current bull cycle.