Newbies Purchase from OGs: Bitcoin Experiences Significant Holder Shift

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a notable shake-up among its holders. Long-term holders (LTHs) have sold a massive amount of BTC since March, redistributing supply to various entities, including ETFs and new investors. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) are facing significant losses, with signs of potential capitulation. In this article, we explore the implications of these trends on Bitcoin's price and market behavior.

Key Takeaways

Long-term holders have sold 1.4 million BTC since March, redistributing assets to ETFs, treasuries, and new market participants, leading to increased decentralization.
Short-term holders are facing heavy losses, as indicated by the SOPR nearing zero, suggesting capitulation but also possibly marking a midpoint for a market reversal.
Bitcoin is currently in one of its bearish phases, having dropped roughly 31% from its all-time high.
Debate is ongoing over whether this decline signifies the beginning of a more extensive bear market, analyzing the movement of Bitcoin among various holder groups.
An assessment of long-term and short-term holder behaviors, alongside institutional adoption, provides insights into future price trends.

Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Increases

Long-term holders—those retaining their Bitcoin for over six months—have been exerting considerable pressure on the market. Since March 2024, these investors have sold at historic levels, with Alphractal data indicating one of the largest sell-offs ever recorded.

Bitcoin Long Term Holder realized price.
Source: Alphractal

Moreover, long-term holders, characterized by the size and duration of their holdings, have changed their behavior, selling portions of their Bitcoin at least four times since March 2024. This pattern shift coincides with diminishing profitability, as the realized price stands at $38,600, while short-term holders remain relatively better off in the current market environment.

Implications for Bitcoin

The recent sales by long-term holders do not necessarily spell doom for Bitcoin. AMBCrypto analyzed the reserves of long-term holders relative to institutional Bitcoin purchases since March 2024—marking the year the broader sell-off began.

Between March 3, 2024, and November 24, 2025, long-term holders sold approximately 1.4 million BTC, valued at close to $121.17 billion at the current price.

Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply.
Source: Bitbo

During the same period, assets under management in U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged from $42.77 billion to $120.82 billion, suggesting that institutional investors have accumulated around $78.05 billion worth of Bitcoin. This results in a net deficit of about $43 billion between the LTH selling activities and ETF purchases.

However, Bitcoin treasury holdings—distributed across 134 entities—account for 1.686 million BTC valued at around $145 billion. These calculations imply a net positive bitcoin inflow of approximately $102 billion to date, excluding retail and short-term holder activities.

Short-Term Holder Outlook

Short-term holders are currently experiencing peak loss phases, signaling exhaustion and a waning incentive to hold their investments. The Short-Term Holder SOPR has drifted close to zero, a zone that history shows is often associated with potential market reversals.

Bitcoin Short Term Holder SOPR
Source: CryptoQuant

For a sustainable market recovery, favorable macroeconomic conditions are essential. This could include a more optimistic sentiment around risk assets, possible interest rate reductions, and a weaker U.S. dollar. On a global scale, liquidity levels have remained relatively stable between $25 trillion and $50 trillion, and this stability has not significantly impacted the crypto market, reducing the chances of an immediate rally driven by liquidity.

Interestingly, historical trends suggest that STH-SOPR readings near zero have often been followed by mid-term price rallies. If this pattern persists, Bitcoin could potentially rebound to the $90,000 level, particularly if bolstered by inflows from traders re-entering the risk asset market.