No “Big Crash” Ahead for Bitcoin, Claims Macro Analyst Lyn Alden

No “Big Crash” Ahead for Bitcoin, Claims Macro Analyst Lyn Alden

Bitcoin’s recent price pullback has ignited fresh discussions in the crypto market, but according to macro analyst Lyn Alden, the fears of a significant collapse are unfounded.

Key Takeaways:

Lyn Alden believes Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a severe crash due to the absence of euphoric market conditions.
She suggests that the traditional four-year cycle for Bitcoin is becoming less relevant as institutional interest and macroeconomic factors influence its market behavior.
Alden forecasts Bitcoin could return to $100,000 by 2026, but she warns investors against assuming that every price drop will be followed by a bull market.

In a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden asserted that the current market dynamics do not exhibit indicators typical of a major sell-off. “We haven’t reached euphoric levels in this cycle; consequently, there’s less reason to anticipate a significant capitulation,” she explained. She added that Bitcoin's price movement is increasingly influenced by broader economic conditions rather than just its conventional halving schedule.

Alden: Traditional Four-Year Cycle is Weakening

Alden argued against the notion that the established four-year cycle is still a decisive factor in Bitcoin's trajectory. She proposed that increasing institutional interest and changing economic conditions might prolong the cycle beyond expectations.

Her views align with recent insights from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who suggested that the market may be entering an extended favorable period rather than a swift boom-and-bust cycle. Alden noted that markets typically do not reach the extremes that investors anticipate, saying, “It’s generally not as rosy as people hope and not as grim as they fear.”

This discussion comes at a sensitive time for traders. Bitcoin, having achieved an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, has since dropped to $80,700 on Thursday before bouncing back to around $85,700, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Market sentiment has significantly waned as earlier expectations for a robust year-end performance diminish. Analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, had predicted a surge towards $250,000.

While the recent drop has sparked new questions about when the next rally might occur, Alden cautioned against the mindset that assumes every dip guarantees a price surge. “Some traders feel entitled to a bull market. That’s not how it works,” she stated.

Looking to the future, Alden anticipates Bitcoin could recapture $100,000 by 2026 and potentially achieve new highs that same year or in 2027.

Coinbase: Rate-Cut Expectations Might Be Miscalculated

In a note released on Friday, Coinbase Institutional asserted that futures markets may be undervaluing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut. They expressed, “We believe the odds for a rate reduction are mispriced,” referencing new tariff research, private-sector data, and real-time inflation metrics.

Coinbase noted that traders shifted their expectations from anticipating a 25-basis point cut to believing the Fed would maintain steady rates after inflation reports earlier this quarter raised concerns.

However, the firm pointed out that the effects of tariffs tend to lower inflation and increase unemployment in the short term, acting as a damper on demand and supporting the case for rate reductions.

According to recent analysis from XWIN Research Japan, if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, Bitcoin may remain confined within a range of $60,000 to $80,000 through December. Analysts predict that a cautious Fed grappling with inflation around 3% is likely to uphold strict conditions, which historically have heavily impacted both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

If no rate cuts occur, XWIN foresees the market staying stagnant, with risk tolerance remaining low until more clarity on macroeconomic conditions is achieved.