OG Bitcoin Selling Declines Sharply: Long-Dormant Coins Remain Still

OG Bitcoin Selling Declines Sharply: Long-Dormant Coins Remain Still

Bitcoin has surpassed the $95,000 mark for the first time since mid-November, sparking discussions among market participants. Some analysts believe that this movement indicates a positive breakout confirming underlying strength after a period of consolidation. Meanwhile, others adopt a more cautious outlook, interpreting the rally as a typical relief bounce within a broader corrective or bearish trend. As market sentiment remains divided and volatility compresses, traders are once again seeking assurance rather than just direction.

An essential aspect of this dialogue, highlighted by an analysis from Darkfost, reveals a significant change occurring beneath the surface: the activity of OG Bitcoin holders has sharply decreased. These OGs—individuals who have kept their coins inactive for several years—have traditionally played a pivotal role during major market transitions, often selling aggressively near market peaks. Earlier in this cycle, their selling activity increased in tandem with strong institutional demand and rising prices. However, recent data indicates that this selling pressure has significantly slowed.

This reduction in the selling activity of OG holders suggests that those who have held their coins for a long time are not currently distributing them into this upward movement, which reduces a major source of structural selling pressure. While this doesn't ensure immediate upward movement, it alters the risk profile of the ongoing move. With fewer long-term holders selling, the price action above $95,000 is now influenced more by marginal demand and derivatives positioning rather than by significant long-term distribution, making the upcoming period particularly vital to observe.

The Decline of OG Selling Pressure: Long-Dormant Coins Settle

Darkfost’s analysis employs UTXO behavior to explore how long-term holders are performing beneath the surface. UTXOs—unspent transaction outputs—track when and how previously unspent Bitcoin is moved, providing a reliable method to identify the actions of OG holders—coins that have remained dormant for many years. Typically, when these dormant coins are spent, it indicates intentional distribution rather than fleeting speculation.

Earlier in this cycle, OG activity surged significantly. Long-held coins were spent at levels surpassing those observed in the previous cycle, aligning with a favorable environment for distribution. Institutional inflows, spot ETFs, and demand linked to government actions created substantial liquidity conditions that allowed longstanding holders to sell without disrupting the price. However, this opportunity appears to be diminishing.

Recent data presents a distinct change. The spikes in OG spending during local price highs are now smaller and less frequent. The rolling average of expended long-term outputs has significantly decreased from previous peaks, suggesting that the most intense period of long-term distribution is likely behind us. This does not mean that OGs have become aggressively bullish, but rather that there is less urgency for these holders to sell.

STXO from OG Bitcoin Holders | Source: CryptoQuant

From a market structure viewpoint, the waning of OG selling pressure removes a substantial overhead supply source. With fewer long-dormant coins being reintroduced to circulation, price movement is increasingly reliant on short-term demand dynamics and derivatives positioning. This shift often precedes periods of consolidation or trend continuation, making the inactivity of OGs a quietly positive signal rather than a direct bullish catalyst.

Bitcoin's Push Through Key Resistance After Short-Term Breakout

Bitcoin has climbed back above the $95,000 threshold after weeks of consolidation, signifying a notable short-term breakout. On the daily chart, prices have reclaimed the declining short-term moving average and are currently testing a previous resistance zone that acted as support during September and October. The $95K–$96K range is technically important, given its alignment with earlier range lows and a notable supply cluster.

BTC Testing Critical Resistance Level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

This rebound follows a sharp corrective phase in November, where Bitcoin recorded a local bottom near the mid-$80,000 range. Since then, price action has formed a series of higher lows, indicating an improving short-term landscape. Trading volume remains moderate, suggesting that this movement is not propelled by aggressive speculation but rather driven by steady spot demand and short covering.

However, Bitcoin is still trading below its longer-term moving averages, which continue to trend downward. This situation implies that, despite recent gains, the broader trend has not yet definitively shifted to bullish. Maintaining levels above $95,000 could lead to reaching the $98,000–$100,000 zone, which presents stronger resistance and zones of previous breakdown.

Should consolidation above current levels fail, another test of the $90,000–$92,000 support range may occur. The chart suggests a transitioning phase: momentum appears to be improving, but confirmation will depend on follow-through and acceptance above this critical resistance level.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin has surpassed $95,000 for the first time since mid-November, reigniting market debates.
The selling activity of OG Bitcoin holders has significantly declined, indicating reduced selling pressure.
A decrease in OG distributions may lead to a shift in market dynamics towards marginal demand.
Bitcoin is testing significant resistance around the $95K–$96K mark, with potential implications for future trends.