Polish Crypto Influencer Declares the Supercycle Over; Bitcoin Enters Classic Bear Market

Bitcoin is once again a focal point in conversations about market cycles. Polish crypto influencer Phil Konieczny believes that the recent downturn aligns perfectly with his earlier predictions.

Key Takeaways

The supercycle narrative for Bitcoin has been proven incorrect, according to Phil Konieczny.
Historical peaks for Bitcoin have occurred earlier in each cycle, indicating market cyclicality.
Bitcoin is currently in a classic bear market phase, trading below its 50-week moving average.
Investors should exercise caution with altcoins due to high risks and their inability to recover from past bear markets.
Macroeconomic issues, such as rising debt and corporate bankruptcies, are major concerns that impact market growth and the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional stocks.

Konieczny asserts that Bitcoin is following a historical trajectory, noting that the market belatedly recognized the end of the bull run. He suggests that the current bear market is a normal cycle phase and shouldn’t be overlooked. Despite the challenging period for cryptocurrencies, he feels that developments are unfolding as expected.

Bitcoin's Bear Market Phase

Phil Konieczny opens his analysis by stating that the current market behavior reflects the established patterns observed in four-year cycles. He notes that Bitcoin, currently priced around $85,000, is mirroring trends seen in previous cycles.

He goes on to point out that historical peak prices have consistently occurred earlier. For instance, the peak occurred in December 2017, in November 2021, and the latest peak was in October. Phil believes these trends reinforce the notion of market cyclicality.

Moreover, he observes that Bitcoin is now entering a natural declining phase. He indicates that many investors have overlooked critical signals that were apparent.

Phil further comments on Bitcoin's current dominance, which he believes is not increasing as robustly as it should. In contrast, smaller altcoins are experiencing significant declines, often falling by 60-80% annually, which highlights the underlying fragility in the market.

Bitcoin dominance. Source: TradingView

Important Warnings from Phil

Phil Konieczny openly declares that the supercycle theory has proven incorrect. He argues that the market had communicated clear signals indicating that cyclicality is ongoing and that it was not wise to ignore this evidence.

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading below its 50-week moving average—a classic indicator of a bear market according to Phil. However, he cautions investors to be mindful of the possibility of a "dead-cat bounce," where prices may temporarily rise before continuing to fall.

Bitcoin Trades Below 50-Week EMA For the First Time Since 2023. Source: TradingView

He strongly advises investors to steer clear of altcoins, as the risks associated with them are significantly higher. Additionally, many altcoins failed to recover after previous bear markets.

Macroeconomic Factors, ETFs, and Investor Perspectives on Bitcoin

Phil provides an in-depth analysis of the current macroeconomic landscape, expressing his concerns. He cites the inverted yield curve, a phenomenon that has historically signaled recessions.

He highlights rising consumer debt in the U.S. and the increasing number of corporate bankruptcies. Phil also discusses the risks linked to the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict, asserting that these elements greatly hinder market growth prospects.

In addition, he addresses the topic of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), noting they were a significant catalyst for the initial bull market. However, he argues that their purchasing activity alone isn’t sufficient unless the macroeconomic conditions improve.

Phil points out the increasingly one-sided correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500; stock market downturns drag cryptocurrencies down, yet rises in the stock market do not provide the same level of support for Bitcoin.

Phil encapsulates his thoughts: