Prediction Markets Signal Bitcoin Won't Hit $100K Before Year-End

Bitcoin could likely remain under the $100,000 mark through the end of 2025, following a weakening of the market after the recent U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin (BTC) has just a 30% probability of reaching $100,000 before January 1, based on prediction markets.
The slowdown in Bitcoin treasury acquisitions has notably impacted the chances of a short-term recovery.
Bitcoin faces resistance around $94,000, with a possibility of breaking into the $98,000 liquidity zone.

Prediction markets bet Bitcoin won’t reach $100K before year’s end

Limited Chances for BTC to Reclaim $100,000 by New Year's

According to traders on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, the general consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to stay below $100,000 for at least the next three weeks. As of December 11, Kalshi bettors estimate a 34% chance of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 before December 31, while Polymarket suggests a 29% chance for the same timeframe.

Bitcoin's $100K price target before December 31. Source: Kalshi

Bitcoin's highest price in December so far is $94,600, reached on the preceding Tuesday. The last time the BTC/USD pair traded above $100,000 was on November 13.

Related: “Bitcoin Due 2026 Bottom as Exchange Volumes Decline: An Analysis”

Several factors are limiting Bitcoin's recovery attempts in the short term, including increasing macroeconomic uncertainties and a notable drop in Bitcoin treasury purchases. Recent data indicates that the number of companies buying Bitcoin daily is declining, suggesting that institutional demand may be waning.

Bitcoin treasury company buyers. Source: Capriole Investments

Despite the lingering low demand from treasury buys, Polymarket traders do not expect significant selling of Bitcoin before year-end. They also anticipate routine smaller purchases will remain robust. Additionally, Polymarket traders see a 65% likelihood of a strategy that involves buying over 1,000 BTC this week.

Just last week, a well-known strategy expanded its Bitcoin treasury to 660,624 BTC after acquiring 10,624 coins for roughly $962.7 million. They are on track to match their Bitcoin purchases from the prior year.

Ceiling for Bitcoin's Price Potential at $98,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView illustrate that the BTC/USD pair has been trading within an ascending triangle over shorter time frames.

"This price is pushing against this resistance again," analyst Daan Crypto Trades shared in a post on X on Wednesday, referring to the supply zone between the yearly opening price of $93,300 and $94,000.

A successful break and sustain above $94,000 could lead to a move towards a target of around $108,000. Yet, Daan suggests it may only manage to retest the previous support area near $98,000, adding that buyers will need to push Bitcoin above $94,589 to open the door for a retest of the $98,000-$100,000 range.

BTC/USD daily four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades