Q4 2025: Bitcoin Experiences Most Significant Quarterly Decline Since 2018

Summary:
The last quarter of 2025 has proven to be the worst for Bitcoin in nearly ten years, as it grapples with a notable loss. This article explores the current state of Bitcoin, its historical performance during Q4, and potential outcomes for early 2026.

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin has faced a 22.54% loss in Q4 2025, marking its most considerable quarterly decline since 2018.
Historically, Q4 tends to be bullish for Bitcoin, but this year breaks that trend.
Bitcoin's price fell from $126,198 in October to $87,201, affecting the total crypto market valuation significantly.
Predictions for Bitcoin's price in 2026 vary, with estimates ranging from $143,000 to $200,000, depending on market scenarios.

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Bitcoin's Worst Quarter Since 2018

The fourth quarter of 2025 has emerged as Bitcoin's worst-performing quarter in nearly a decade, registering a loss of 22.54% with only one week left in the year. According to data from Coinglass, the last time Bitcoin encountered such severe negative performance in Q4 was back in 2018, when it closed with a staggering 42.16% loss.

This downward trend signifies the bearish market conditions witnessed since Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 in October 2025. Since that moment, it has seen a decline of 30.82%, dropping to $87,201. This downturn has significantly impacted the global crypto market, erasing over $1 trillion in value, as it decreased from over $4.1 trillion several months ago to approximately $2.91 trillion today.

Bitcoin historical chart from Coinglass

An Unusual Performance for Bitcoin

Typically, Q4 has been a promising period for Bitcoin. Historically, it has averaged gains of 77.11%, with a median gain of 47.73%. Since 2013, Bitcoin has been profitable in Q4 eight times, boasting gains ranging from a high of 479.59% to a low of 5.45%. However, Bitcoin has recorded losses in Q4 only five times, including this year.

Following the sharp decline of 42% in Q4 2018, Bitcoin rebounded in Q1 2019, achieving an 8.74% increase, setting a stage for an impressive 159.36% rise by Q2. Nevertheless, it faced another loss in Q3 and Q4 of 2019, contributing to an overall 10.83% dip in Q1 2020. This led to a significant recovery, as Bitcoin subsequently recorded outstanding gains in Q2, Q3, and Q4, with increases of 42.33%, 17.97%, and a striking 168.02%, respectively.

What Lies Ahead in Q1 2026?

The historical trends suggest two potential scenarios for Bitcoin moving forward into Q1 2026. On one hand, it could see a recovery similar to the post-Q4 losses in 2018 and 2022. Notably, after a 14.75% decline in Q4 2022, Bitcoin rallied with a remarkable 71.77% gain in Q1 2023.

Conversely, Bitcoin may encounter further losses in Q1 2026, paralleling its performance after the Q4 2019 decline. However, such a setback could pave the way for explosive gains in the subsequent quarters. Thus, even if Q1 2026 ends poorly for Bitcoin, a strong rebound could follow for the remainder of the year.

Expectations for Bitcoin in 2026

Industry analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin's potential in 2026. According to Citibank, Bitcoin could soar to $189,000 under an ultra-bullish scenario, while a more moderate prediction suggests it could reach $143,000. Both scenarios would establish new all-time highs for the cryptocurrency.

Analysts at Bernstein share a similar outlook, estimating Bitcoin could hit $150,000 in 2026 and reach as high as $200,000 in 2027.

Disclaimer: This content is solely for informational purposes and should not be seen as financial advice. The views expressed in this article represent the author's opinions, which may not reflect those of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to do their own research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic does not take responsibility for any financial losses incurred.