Recent Bitcoin Rebound: Concerns Over Sustainability

Bitcoin's recent price increase could be short-lived due to a lack of retail investor interest. An analysis from CryptoQuant highlights that without strong participation from small investors, the current rally might struggle to maintain momentum.

Key Takeaways

Recent Bitcoin recovery lacks retail demand typically crucial for sustained growth.
Retail investors have historically driven Bitcoin rallies, increasing trading volume and price stability.
Analysts express caution about Bitcoin's position, waiting for clearer indicators of next trends.

Bitcoin

Understanding the Current Bitcoin Rebound

The latest upward trend in Bitcoin, which started earlier this year, faces potential challenges due to insufficient retail investor engagement. According to IT Tech, a commentator from CryptoQuant, retail demand usually surges significantly during upward Bitcoin movements.

While Bitcoin (BTC) has recently bounced back from a substantial 23% drop at the end of 2025, rising about 5% this year to reclaim the $90,000 mark, there is little sign of retail demand this time around. This absence has led IT Tech to advise investors to be cautious moving forward.

To illustrate this point, the analyst presented a chart from CryptoQuant showing the 30-day change in Bitcoin demand from retail investors making transactions below $10,000. This chart tracks how small investments correlate with Bitcoin’s overall performance.

Bitcoin Retail Demand Chart CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Retail Demand Chart | CryptoQuant

Importance of Retail Demand in Bitcoin's Trend

Retail investors play a essential role in fueling substantial Bitcoin rallies, as they provide new funds when early successes attract attention. Although institutional buyers often kick off these movements, it is retail engagement that ultimately influences how far and long the trend can last.

When individual traders enter the market, it typically leads to increased trading volume, heightened optimism, and more manageable price spikes. However, if retail participation remains low, the market could overly rely on fewer investors, limiting potential growth.

Currently, the negative retail demand trend suggests that smaller investors are more inclined to sell rather than buy. This scenario weakens the support for Bitcoin’s current recovery. If retail traders abstain from buying or continue to capitalize on their profits, the market could lose a critical source of buying pressure.

Historical Context of Retail Demand in Bitcoin Rallies

Past data from CryptoQuant reveals that retail participation has consistently been vital for Bitcoin’s price increases. For example, during the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin surged from $35,000 to $69,000, with retail demand rising to 15% during this period.

A similar trend was noticed in September 2023, when Bitcoin climbed from $25,927 to $73,794, supported by retail investors as the demand indicator approached 20%. Remarkably, one of the largest spikes in retail demand occurred in late 2024, matching Bitcoin’s breakthrough above $100,000.

Current Insights from Analysts

In light of the existing uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin, analysts are exercising caution regarding its price movements. Following a peak at $94,792 this year, Bitcoin experienced a correction. At present, it trades at $92,383, reflecting a 5.57% increase this month.

Despite this caution, analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes that market trends are beginning to shift in Bitcoin's favor. He notes that Bitcoin has been consistently challenging the critical $92,000 level and maintains support above the 21-day EMA, which stands at $90,466.

Bitcoin 1D Chart Michael van de Poppe
Bitcoin 1D Chart | Michael van de Poppe

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. The views expressed here belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses incurred.