Rising Long-Term Holder Supply Activity Signals Possible Bitcoin Price Drop

Bitcoin

As Bitcoin continues to navigate a fluctuating market, its price has stabilized somewhat over the recent weekend. With ongoing tensions in the Middle East, predicting the future of the cryptocurrency landscape remains uncertain. However, analysis of Bitcoin's technical and on-chain metrics indicates that we may still be experiencing a bear market. Current on-chain data suggests the price of Bitcoin remains at risk for further declines.

Key Considerations for Bitcoin's Market Outlook

Long-Term Holder Activity: An increase in the Active Supply Ratio for long-term holders (LTH) indicates heightened activity within this sector, which typically precedes downward price movements.
Distribution Phase: As long-term holders distribute their Bitcoin to meet demand, the market could switch to a sideways motion until demand weakens.
Potential Price Decline: Despite recent volatility, indicators suggest the market may continue to trend downwards, particularly as the market completes its distribution phase.
Current Price and Support Levels: Bitcoin is currently priced at around $67,628, experiencing a slight decline of 1% in the last 24 hours. The $60,000–$62,000 range could act as a liquidity generation zone but may not provide lasting support.

Analyzing Bitcoin's Bearish Trend

In a recent update on the X platform, on-chain analyst Boris highlighted that Bitcoin's current price dynamics remain susceptible to downward trends. The rising Active Supply Ratio among long-term holders indicates an increase in their trading activity, which often foreshadows price decreases.

Boris explained that the activity usually leads up to significant upward price fluctuations but occurs initially as a distribution phase, where Bitcoin is allocated strategically to meet demand in anticipation of future market movements. He elaborated that:

"As the market rises, these coins are gradually distributed to meet demand. When demand begins to weaken, the market typically transitions into a sideways structure, allowing the distribution process to continue."

Historically, the Bitcoin market tends to shift downward after the distribution phase concludes and new positions are fully established. For example, since the uptick in long-term holder activity, Bitcoin's price has experienced a sharp decline from approximately $95,000 to around $60,000.

Bitcoin
Source: @fundingvest on X

Despite the drop in Bitcoin's price, the ongoing rise in long-term holder supply indicates that a continued downturn remains likely. Boris cautions that any anticipated upward movements in the near future may merely be a liquidity illusion within the existing distribution phase.

He also expressed skepticism about the current support level at $60,000 to $62,000, suggesting that this range might simply serve as a liquidity generation zone—an area with a concentration of orders that could absorb excess trading activity.

In closing, Boris stated that, based on the present data trends, the probability of downward price movements for Bitcoin as we approach the year’s end appears stronger.

Current Bitcoin Price Snapshot

As of now, Bitcoin’s price is approximately $67,628, marking a 1% decrease over the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView