Saylor: Quantum Computing Will Not Disrupt Bitcoin

Saylor: Quantum Computing Won't Break Bitcoin

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, has addressed common concerns regarding quantum computing's potential threat to Bitcoin, presenting a perspective that leans towards optimism. He explains how Bitcoin's technological upgrades and the nature of lost coins contribute to this bullish outlook.

Key Takeaways

Quantum computers could potentially break Bitcoin's encryption, specifically the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA).
The Bitcoin network plans to implement a quantum-resistant upgrade before quantum computers pose a significant threat.
Lost coins will remain unmovable, as their keys were not preserved, leading to a consensus to freeze outdated protocols.
Experts generally believe that quantum threats are exaggerated, with substantial advancements in quantum computing unlikely before 2030.

Michael Saylor, a co-founder of Strategy, recently used a social media post to transform the widespread fear that quantum computers could hack Bitcoin into a favorable narrative. His viewpoint is built on the understanding of Bitcoin's technological advancements and the economic implications of "lost" coins.

While it is theoretically possible for quantum computers to crack the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) that secures Bitcoin private keys, this scenario presents a risk. If realized, it could allow malicious actors to derive private keys from public keys and access users' funds.

However, before quantum computers reach the level of capability needed to breach ECDSA, the Bitcoin network is expected to execute a soft fork introducing quantum-resistant encryption methods, including Lamport signatures or lattice-based cryptography. Once this upgrade is integrated, users will be prompted to transfer their Bitcoin from insecure addresses to those fortified against quantum threats.

Coins that are considered "lost" cannot be transferred since the owners have lost access to their keys. Consequently, these coins remain stuck and cannot be migrated to the new quantum-secure addresses.

According to Saylor, after the migration period concludes, it is likely that consensus within the Bitcoin network will lead to a decision to freeze the old protocol permanently. In response to Saylor's recent post, Casa's Jameson Lopp commented, "I agree, lost coins should stay frozen. Glad to hear you'll support my BIP!"

The prevailing perspective among institutional analysts, such as those at Grayscale, along with cryptographers, is that the risks posed by quantum computing are largely overstated. Most specialists do not anticipate the emergence of a practical quantum computer capable of cryptographic attacks before 2030. Grayscale even characterized fears surrounding quantum computing as a "red herring" for the market in 2026.

At present, the only pressing concern relates to encrypted data — such as emails or government secrets — that can be captured now and potentially decrypted in the years ahead. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin transactions require real-time signing rather than merely decrypting previously stored data.