Short-Term Bitcoin Traders Made Gains for 66% of 2025: Will Profits Continue in 2026?

Short-term Bitcoin traders were profitable for 66% of 2025: Will profits rise in 2026?

In 2025, short-term Bitcoin holders (STHs) achieved profit for 229 out of 345 days, which is surprising considering that Bitcoin (BTC) has had a negative year-to-date (YTD) return and struggles to trade above $100,000. However, the on-chain data reveals a more nuanced picture behind this overall performance.

Key Takeaways:

Short-term Bitcoin holders profited for 66% of 2025, despite Bitcoin trading below its yearly starting price.
The realized price for STHs at $81,000 served as a significant marker, differentiating between times of fear and recovery.
Unrealized losses decreased from -28% to -12%, indicating that capitulation is fading.

Bitcoin's Trading Patterns Near Realized Price

The volatility seen throughout 2025 can largely be explained by analyzing the 1–3 month STH group. As shown in the accompanying chart, Bitcoin's price often interacted with its realized price, alternately resulting in periods of green (net unrealized profit) and red (unrealized losses) as indicated in the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) metric.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin STH realized price and NUPL range. Source: CryptoQuant

At the start of 2025, Bitcoin remained above this cost basis for almost two months, allowing short-term holders to enjoy their first extended period of profits. However, the prices dipped below the realized price in February and March, dragging STH NUPL deep into the red and marking one of the longest loss stretches of the year.

In contrast, a momentum reversal occurred from late April to mid-October, where the chart's green zones match Bitcoin's 172-day period of mainly profitable STH activity. Even though the broader trend weakened, these recoveries enabled STH profitability to exceed the overall market narrative.

It was only at the end of October that the market dropped back below the realized price, leading to a continuing 45-day stretch of STH losses that paralleled the expanding red NUPL area.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin STH realized price against BTC. Source: CryptoQuant

Overall, STH profitability in 2025 was influenced less by Bitcoin's overall market trend and more by how frequently BTC regained its cost basis. These repeated recoveries, even in a negative YTD scenario, led short-term holders to end the year with a profit ratio of two-thirds.

Related: Bitcoin Decouples from Stocks in the Second Half of 2025

Changes in Bitcoin’s Cost Basis May Set the Stage for Future Movements

Bitcoin’s rebound toward $92,500 saw STH unrealized losses shrink from -28% to -12%, suggesting that forced selling is easing and that emotional exhaustion among investors is occurring. The STH realized price at $81,000 remains a crucial psychological point, as historical patterns show that each time it is reclaimed, it's often followed by a transition from capitulation to stability.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC age-band unrealized P&L distribution. Source: CryptoQuant

New investors entering the market within a few days to weeks are hovering around breakeven, reinforcing this stabilizing trend. If Bitcoin can maintain its STH profitability while staying above this $81,000 level, we might be nearing the end of the late-year correction, setting the stage for the next growth phase.

Related: Bitcoin New Year Bear Flag Sparks $76K BTC Price Target Next