Signs of Recovery in Coinbase Premium as US Selling Pressure Eases

Bitcoin's critical reversal signal may finally be taking shape. After enduring three weeks of significant sell pressure from US spot markets and unprecedented ETF outflows, a remarkable convergence of metrics is now shifting positively.

Key Takeaways

The Coinbase Premium is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged period of negative performance.
US selling pressure has significantly reduced, indicating potential market stabilization and possibilities for upward movement.
Macro conditions are shifting positively, with indications of declining yields and increasing ETF inflows.
Analysts suggest a bullish sentiment may be developing, marking a pivotal moment for Bitcoin's price trajectory.

The Coinbase Premium is showing signs of recovery, large investors (whales) are taking long positions, funding rates have turned negative, and new ETF inflows are resurfacing. Analysts suggest that this is the first coordinated improvement in Bitcoin's market structure since early November.

Easing of US Selling Pressure After Weeks of Decline

Throughout most of November, US-based entities significantly drove down the price of Bitcoin. The Coinbase Premium Index, which compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase Pro (commonly used by US institutions) with prices on global exchanges, remained in the negative territory for 22 consecutive days—marking the longest period of discount in 2025.

Crypto analyst Crypto Goos noted that every time this indicator turns “deeply red,” there has been a corresponding decline in Bitcoin's price. However, with this week’s shift in dynamics, it seems that the situation may be changing.

Dark Fost, who closely monitors these indicators, observed that the same group of sellers, comprising institutions, professionals, and US whales, has significantly reduced their selling activity since the peak of panic on November 21. “The selling pressure from these groups has greatly diminished... if this trend continues, it could provide some breathing room for the market,” Fost commented.

Notably, analysts highlight that the most significant change is seen in position data, with whales taking long positions on Bitcoin more aggressively than individual investors for the first time ever.

With the Coinbase Premium rising once more, funding rates decreasing, and retail investors showing caution, analysts believe these patterns often precede sustained upward trends. Analyst Para Muhendisi suggested, “The uptrend will probably continue for a while, possibly until the year's end.” Similarly, analyst Daan Crypto Trades confirmed that the underlying dynamics are improving, with Coinbase's premium rising steadily and funding rates turning negative, emphasizing that even minor improvements are vital considering the extreme sell pressure experienced earlier.

Positive Macro Trends: Dollar Weakens, Yields Decline, and ETF Inflows Return

In addition to these market changes, some analysts are noticing critical catalysts emerging on a macroeconomic level. MV Crypto highlighted that expectations for interest rate cuts surged from 30% to 84% in just one week, which can be seen as bullish for the broader market. They added, “The US Dollar Index is rejecting a key resistance… and the 10-year yield is now below 4%.”

Given this context, there is an emerging sentiment that a bullish approach might be more appropriate than a bearish one, as macroeconomic conditions appear to be turning favorable for the crypto market.

Furthermore, major transfer activities, such as SpaceX moving $105 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime for custody, reinforce this optimistic view.

After one of the most substantial ETF outflow periods on record, the dates of November 25 and 26 finally saw positive inflows. Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform optimally when ETF inflows and the Coinbase Premium rise together, indicating strong demand across both institutional products and spot exchanges.

As noted, “Coinbase Premium is finally climbing back up — buyers on US spot markets are returning. This type of shift usually occurs near local bottoms, aligning with the current rebound we’re witnessing.”

Nevertheless, analyst Ted has taken a more cautious stance, pointing out that while the Coinbase Bitcoin premium is recovering, it’s essential to have a stable upward trajectory before concluding that most BTC rallies will not face selling pressure. Presently, the market may be in a transitional state—not fully reversed but certainly no longer in decline.

This aligns with a recent BeInCrypto analysis, which emphasized lingering liquidity concerns despite Bitcoin's price crossing the $90,000 mark. With whales increasing long positions, US selling pressure diminishing, funding rates now negative, macroeconomics shifting positively, and ETF inflows returning, analysts conclude that Bitcoin is experiencing its first legitimate opportunity for upward momentum since early November.