Solana Price Forecast Turns Bearish After $100 Breakdown – Can Next Support Stop the Decline?

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The Solana price has started the new month facing pressures after falling below a crucial psychological price point that has held for most of the past year. This drop beneath $100 has shifted market focus from recovery hopes to responding to challenges.

Now, traders are keenly observing if upcoming support levels can stem the ongoing decline, which has been emphasized by general weaknesses in the crypto market. Despite ongoing network activity and institutional interest, the short-term price trend has turned decidedly bearish.

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Solana Price Breaks Below $100 Amid Growing Selling Pressure

The Solana price recently dropped to approximately $98, marking its lowest point in almost ten months, before rebounding to its current level around $102. This decline reflects a nearly 20% loss over the past week and roughly 25% over the last month.

Trading activity has slowed as prices fall, with both spot volume and derivative participation decreasing. Data from CoinGlass indicates a reduction in open interest, suggesting that traders are unwinding long positions rather than aggressively increasing short ones.

This price move is not happening in a vacuum. A broad wave of liquidations across the market during the weekend, coupled with low liquidity, has intensified negative movements in major cryptocurrencies.

Further complicating sentiment are macroeconomic issues, driven by fresh expectations of tighter monetary policy in the U.S. following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for the upcoming Federal Reserve chair position, which the market interprets as hawkish.

Technical Analysis Indicates Potential for Lower Support Levels

From a technical standpoint, the condition of Solana looks weakened. The price falling below $100 has confirmed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with Solana currently trading far below its declining short-term moving averages.

The widening of Bollinger Bands combined with Solana’s price action nearing the lower band hints that downward momentum remains prevalent rather than stabilizing.

Momentum indicators also highlight the ongoing pressure. The daily relative strength index is hovering around 25, placing SOL firmly in the oversold territory. While this raises the chances of short-term rebounds, it does not indicate a potential trend reversal alone.

On the downside, traders are particularly monitoring the $95 level, followed by a wider support zone between $92 and $90. If prices fall below these, significant historical support levels can be found at $85 and $80. Some on-chain analyses suggest that if selling pursues, thinner support could lead to deeper declines later this year.

However, despite the pessimistic price outlook, Solana's foundational network metrics continue to show relative strength. January saw a significant increase in transaction counts, and recent information indicates ongoing growth in on-chain activity and stablecoin transactions.

While institutional interest presents a mixed picture, earlier January inflows have been countered by recent outflows from Solana ETFs.

At present, the technical landscape dominates the market. Solana needs to regain the $110 level and maintain its position above key moving averages to alleviate bearish pressure. Until that occurs, any rallies are likely to be interpreted as corrective actions in a broader downtrend, making nearby support levels critical for the market’s near-term direction.

Key Takeaways:

The Solana price fell below $100, raising concerns about a bearish trend.
Recent trading activity has seen a decline in both spot volume and derivative participation.
Traders are watching specific support levels, including $95 and the $92-$90 range, as crucial indicators.
Macro factors, such as U.S. monetary policy changes, are impacting market sentiment.
Despite the bearish trend, Solana's network metrics show strong underlying performance.